By the stats, how are the Yankees doing?
by Greg Corcoran
The only truly important statistics in baseball are wins and losses. At the end of the season, it’s the only thing that matters to get a team into the playoffs. From there, it’s finding a way to win in October and hopefully, November.
Still, we as fans try to find indicators that the team’s success will either continue or (gasp) will fade into oblivion. I decided to take a look at the early returns thus far and determine how the Yankees are doing and what may need to improve for sustained success.
Let’s start with the rotation ERA:
Carlos Rodon – 2.4, 21st
Marcus Stroman – 2.93, 30th
Nestor Cortes – 3.50, 42nd
Clarke Schmidt – 3.55, 44th
Luis Gil – 4.01 51st
The Yankees starting rotation lacks a true ace without Cole, but they are all performing well. Assuming 150 pitchers in the major leagues, the Yankees all rank in or very close to the top 1/3 of the leagues. Once (God willing) Gerrit Cole is back in the mix, this is likely to be the team’s biggest strength going forward. Given that most of the concerns surrounding this team before the season started were with the rotation, this is a good spot to be in 28 games into the season.
Team SP ERA – 3.19, 4th
The Yankees rank 4th in starting pitcher ERA. Based on the paragraph above, this is not surprising.
Team SP IP – 152.1, 3rd
The starters have managed to throw 146.1 innings, which ranks 3rd in the league. This is important because it allows the bullpen to have some rest.
Team HR against – 18, 16th
Compared to the ERA, the Yankees starters have run into some trouble with the long ball. Some of this is bad luck, but there’s also probably a component of pitchers leaving too many balls up in the zone. If this can be corrected, the ERA will likely become even more impressive.
Team avg against – .225, 5th
The Yankees’ starters rank 5th in average against. This is a testament to how well this unit has performed as a group. Credit also must be given to Matt Blake.
Team K/9 – 9.33, 3rd
Team BB/9 – 3.43, 19th
I’m going to lump K/9 and BB/9 together. The Yankees starters rank 3rd in K/9, and 19th in BB. They are doing quite well, especially considering Cole has been on the IL. There is room for improvement with the walks, but ultimately what matters is run prevention. They are doing a nice job on this front.
Overall, the starting rotation has been quite a strength for the Yankees. If you had told me on opening day the Yankees’ rotation would be this strong 28 games in without Gerrit Cole, my jaw would have dropped. Nothing to complain about here.
Bullpen:
ERA – 2.74, 4th
Again, run prevention. The Yankees’ bullpen has done just that. With a 2.74 ERA, they rank 4th in the league. Anchored by Clay Holmes and Ian Hamilton, you can’t ask for much more from a group than what this group has done.
Innings – 101.2, 13th
This has less to do with performance and more to do with bullpen management. The Yankees sit in the middle of the pack in innings pitched for the bullpen, which is not a terrible place to be. You don’t want them to be overworked, but you also don’t want them to be underutilized. Relievers don’t perform well when they don’t pitch regularly. This is a testament to Aaron Boone and the starting rotation.
HR – 7, 3rd
The bullpen has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the yard. This is important because avoiding the big hit in the late innings wins games.
Average against – .204, 4th
Matt Blake has been able to get the most out of his pitchers. He has been able to unleash the beast and help his guys get more movement. This movement has led to soft contact, which is keeping the Yankees winning games.
K/9 – 7.26, 27th
The bullpen hasn’t been striking guys out much. This is a sticking point for many of the critics of the bullpen on this team, but what matters most is run prevention. They are certainly doing a good job of it.
BB/9 – 3.54, 13th
Control has been middle of the road. When you’re generating ground balls that’s not as big of a deal. They have been able to get the big outs when they need them.
Overall ERA – 3.01, 2nd
When you combine the bullpen and the rotation, they have the second-best ERA in the league. This is without Gerrit Cole, Tommy Kahnle, Scott Effross, and Lou Trivino. There’s a good chance this unit only gets better when it’s fully healthy.
Batting
Runs – 133, 11th
Generating runs is the name of the game on offense. The hitting has been timely, which is why the win-loss record has been so good. The Yankees are still not in the top 10 in scoring though, which could be a problem if there’s no improvement.
HR – 34, 4th
They are fourth in the league in homeruns, and Judge hasn’t even hit his stride yet. They’re in a good spot, and most importantly they’re scoring enough to win close games this year. The big hit is coming frequently, but so are the small ones. There have been a few spurts where the team starts to look like they did last year, but then they snap out of it (see tonight).
BB – 122, 1st
In addition to the hits, the whole lineup is doing a great job of getting on base with the free pass. In fact, they lead the league in it. Getting ducks on the pond for the big bashers in this lineup is huge.
K – 222, 14th
The strikeouts are middle of the road. Part of that is a result of all of the baserunners and runs they’ve scored. The more at bats you have, the more strikeouts you’ll have. The other part is that despite all of the moves they made this offseason, their contact rate still has room for improvement.
SB – 14, 21st
This team is not necessarily built for stolen bases. The only player on the team who can steal bases consistently is Volpe. With Soto and Judge batting behind him, there are few situations where it makes sense for him to steal. The risk outweighs the reward, as Soto and Judge can get an extra base hit at any time.
Average – .245, 15th
This is perhaps the biggest opportunity for improvement for this team. They’re hitting homeruns and getting on base, but still not scoring runs like a top 5 team. If the average improves, the team could start putting up bigger numbers. Here’s to hoping that Gleyber and Judge start hitting to their capabilities.
OBP – .335, 4th
Unsurprisingly, the team that leads the league in walks is also 4th in OBP. Not much more to say here.
SLG – .396, 11th
This is another area that will likely improve if the average comes up a bit. It also speaks to a general lack of extra base hits compared to the elite lineups of the league though.
OPS – .731, 9th
A function of the OBP and SLG, the Yankees are 9th in OPS. If they can get into the top 5 they will be tough to beat.
GIDP – 32, 30th
The Yankees have grounded into the most double plays in the league. Some of this is just because they are getting on base so much. Still, they are not lifting the ball well with men on base. Something for James Rowson to work on.
BABIP – .283, 20th
This could be an indication that the team average is due to increase. The low BABIP can be an indication of soft contact, but it could also mean that the Yankees have been unlucky so far this season. Having watched most of the games, it’s playing a significant role.
Overall outlook
Looking at all of the indicators, the Yankees have a lot to be excited about. This is especially true on the pitching side. The rotation and bullpen have been near the top of the league in many categories. Moreover, the depth in the rotation and bullpen is quite good. It appears they could withstand a couple of injuries if/when they do occur.
On the hitting side, there’s still some work to be done. If some of their big guns regress to their career norms, they could push their way to the top 5. Even if they continue on the current trajectory, this appears to be a team that will continue to compete for a pennant. There’s no sign of slowing down, and they should be right there in the mix until the end of the season. I am extremely optimistic about the playoffs, and the idea of making a deep playoff run is starting to grow on me as well.