Jung-hoo Lee Prospect Profile

by JinWook Kim

Jung-hoo Lee

 

Jung-hoo Lee’s father, Jong-beom Lee is arguably the greatest position player in KBO history. Nicknamed as “The Son of Wind” due to his blazing speed, Lee, the elder, has won an MVP award, 4 championships, 6 Gold Gloves, and accomplished a 30-60 season (not a single player in MLB has accomplished a 30-60 season) throughout his career. To say that the pressure was high was an understatement for the younger Lee ever since his amateur days when he was already nicknamed as, of course, “The Grandson of Wind”. The right handed hitter Jong-beom gave just one baseball related advice to his son ever and it was to bat left-handed. Apparently, that was all Jung-hoo needed.

 

Initially drafted in the first round by the Nexen Heroes as a shortstop in 2016, Lee was most well-known for his contact abilities. He had no problem translating his skills to professional baseball, where he was shifted to play in the outfield. Lee batted .324 in his rookie season, struck out just 67 times in 144 games, and won Rookie of The Year. Since then, he has only gotten better. Last season, Lee had a slash line of .349/ .421/ .575, recorded a 182 wRC+ along with 9.2 WAR, and took home his first MVP award, becoming the first father/son duo to have both won MVP awards in the history of the sport. He is scheduled to be posted ahead of the 2024 season and will be eligible to sign with any 1 of the 30 MLB teams. In KBO standards, his tools would currently grade out as the following:

 

Hit	Game Power	Raw Power	Speed	Defense	Arm
80	70	60	55	60	60

 

Lee’s raw and game power were both below KBO average at the time of his debut, but he has since then added around 8 mph (!) of average exit velocity and is currently averaging 88 mph this season while maxing out at around 103 mph which would be slightly below average in big league standard respectively. Unlike his father, Jung-hoo does not have top-of-the-scale speed but still plays plus centerfield defense due to excellent routes. His arm is currently an average tool in KBO but should grade out just below average in MLB standards. Under the assumption that he adapts somewhat well to big-league pitching, his tools would grade out as the following in MLB standards:

 

Hit	Game Power	Raw Power	Speed	Defense	Arm
55	45	45	55	55	50

 

If he’s able to translate seamlessly into big league pitching, his comp will look somewhat like a Steven Kwan with slightly worse contact but slightly better power or prime Nick Markakis with slightly worse contact and worse raw power but better speed and the ability to play CF which would be the makings of a potential 4 win player. However, it has always been challenging for East Asian position players to translate their game well against big-league pitching. Lee may seem like a high-floor profile, but he does have certain holes in his game. Fangraphs stated two clear weaknesses in Lee’s game, which were 1) He struggles against velocity and 2) He has launch angle problems. However, only half of the analysis seems to be true. It is stated on FG that Lee has a ground ball rate of nearly 60%, but STATIZ (KBO data website) has his FO/GO rate above 1 for 5 of the 7 seasons he has played in his career, the two exceptions being his rookie season and a season with 0.99 FO/GO rate. He’s not exactly a prolific flyball hitter, but the launch angle hasn’t been an issue and likely will not be in the big leagues due to the uppercut nature of his swing and his average launch angle being slightly below 15°. However, he does have issues against velocity as he had a sub .700 OPS against fastballs at 93 mph or faster, which is concerning because 93 mph is below MLB average.

 

Struggles against velocity and the lack of raw power may seem like a recipe for failure at the big league level, but there are still reasons to believe he’ll provide above-average offensive production. His biggest strength is, of course, his bat-to-ball skills. His career contact rate is above 90% and was all the way up to 92.6% during his MVP campaign last year. He can make flush contact against better-breaking balls and offspeed pitches while walking at an 11% clip. The pure amount of contact he makes is impressive by itself, but his ability to spray line drives gap to gap and pull fly balls has led to a career .353 BABIP in KBO over 3745 plate appearances and will help make the most out of his raw power even at the big leagues. He made mechanical changes to address his struggles against good velocity prior to this season and is currently in the worst slump of his career. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that he’ll turn his season around and be in contention for his second MVP by the end of the season. Jung-hoo Lee has improved his game every single year since his highly anticipated debut (his wRC+ has increased every season), and his drive to become better, along with his top-of-the-scale baseball IQ, are what makes me believe he’ll be a solid player for whichever MLB team he signs with in the offseason despite the holes in his game.

 

According to recent reports, scouts from the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Pirates, and Phillies were in attendance to watch him play recently.  Jung-hoo Lee’s is reportedly in the 5-year deal in the 75-100M range. It will likely take the bat at least half a season to adjust to facing much higher velocity pitchers, which he has struggled with in his limited exposure to higher velocity. While his elite bat-to-ball skills would be an incredible help to this lineup eventually. I think we have better options coming in Dominguez and Jones and wait for them. He’s worth a look absolutely, but if he is viewed as a big piece for the Yankees in 2024, something went horribly wrong this off-season