2024 Breakout Candidates: Will Brian
5-foot-11
220-pounds
Starting Pitcher
Left-handed
24-years-old
Were it not for an early injury that cost him the season, Will Brian may have had a huge breakout in 2023. The Yankees drafted Brian in the 10th round of the 2022 draft. It was initially thought that he would be a reliever at the next level. Due to a significant uptick in stuff Brian was made a starter and the early returns were good.
Brian had a successful college career, mostly as a reliever. He had his best season in 2022, when he had 53 K : 14 BB in 39.1 innings while sporting a 1.83 ERA at Eastern Kentucky. That year he was drafted by the Yankees and threw two innings in the minors. 1.1 of those innings were in Low-A, where he struck out all four of the batters he faced in his first appearance.
Brian spent the offseason working to increase his velocity and it worked. He came into 2023 a starting pitcher primed to explode onto the scene. Alas, he threw 6.1 innings and then succumbed to a an injury which cost him the rest of the season. It is unknown at this time what the injury was, but I have not heard that he had Tommy John Surgery. He had 8 K : 10 BB in those 6.1 innings with a 4.26 ERA. It’s clear something was off, as Brian had phenomenal control leading up to that point.
He came to camp in 2023 with a velocity increase to low-90’s topping out at 94.2. That fastball averages 12-18 inches of run and 18 inches of induced vertical drop. His curveball, meanwhile, has an insanely good movement profile with 53-60 inches of vertical break and 12 inches of horizontal break. In his second start he introduced a slider with nasty movement. He even threw a changeup which has tail and break. He had difficulty controlling these offerings in the early going, but when he comes back I suspect he will return to previous form.
Depending on what the injury was, Brian could begin the season on the injured list. When he returns Yankees fans could be in for a treat. He’ll likely start back in Low-A but could move fast if the velocity he was able to gain returns. With the movement he gets on his pitches, it’s going to be hard to square him up.
Brian has increased his ceiling from a middle reliever to a back end starter, and he may not be done improving. With the velocity increase, it is likely that he would be able to hit the higher end of his range in relief. Spin and movement are his biggest strength, and that is likely to return to baseline after surgery. At the least, he profiles as a middle reliever with good control. As a lefty, he will get many opportunities to get there.
Brian may start 2023 on the IL, but his return could see him move quickly through the minors. The biggest thing will be to get innings under his belt. With a good season, the Yankees will have another nice lefty prospect in their system to add to the mix. Keep his name on your radar, he may become a must-know prospect by the end of the season.