2024 Breakout candidates: Sean Hermann
Greg Corcoran
6-foot-0
160-pounds
Right-Handed
Starting pitcher
20-years-old
With a quick look at Sean Hermann’s 2023 stats it would be easy to cast him to the side in the discussion of top Yankees prospects. Beneath the season numbers, however, is an intriguing package. A deeper dive into the statistics will also shed light on why Hermann is a breakout candidate for the 2024 season.
The Yankees drafted Hermann in the 14th round of the 2021 draft out of Durant High School in Florida. He was a relatively unknown draft prospect at that time but caught the attention of fans when he arrived to the FCL in 2022. He was dominant in six starts there and earned a quick promotion to Low-A to finish out the year. There he pitched to a 2.66 ERA in 20.1 innings. He finished the season with a 2.52 ERA and 57 K : 13 BB in 53.2 innings.
2023 ended up being a bit of a hiccup for Sean. He spent most of the season in Low-A and finished out the season with one start for the Renegades in High-A. The overall statistics were mediocre, but there were some encouraging trends at the end of the season. He finished the season with a 4.79 ERA and 91 K : 45 BB in 112.2 innings pitched.
The most reassuring part of the picture is that he finished much stronger than he started. He had a 3.24 ERA in his last six starts. His walk rate decreased, his strikeout rate increased, and his average against plummeted during this stretch. All of this began while he was already 30 innings above his career high. He ultimately threw 59 more innings than his career high. The fact that he finished on such a high note despite the massive increase in workload is impressive.
The scouting report might be surprising to some. At just 20-years-old, Hermann already possesses a two-seam fastball that sits in the low-90’s and touches 95 mph with a whopping 25-30 inches of vertical break and 18 inches of horizontal break. The only other player in the system with movement like that is Will Warren. He also has a changeup with a similarly impressive movement profile which he pairs with a sweeper that has 6-12 inches of horizontal break and a cutter that has mostly vertical movement.
Some scouts have said that Hermann lacks upside. It has been mentioned that his height will likely limit his ability to add more velocity. That rang true from 2022 to 2023, where his velocity remained virtually the same. At 170-pounds, he still has a lot of room to fill out and I would disagree with the notion that his velocity will not increase. He’s also still just 20-years-old and hasn’t been able to access his man strength yet. There is still plenty of upside here, so this is one case where I don’t trust the scouts entirely.
As it stands, Hermann has the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. The floor is still on the lower side, given that it’s still possible he will never sniff the majors. With the exciting finish he had to 2023, there is reason for optimism that 2024 will be much better. This is why Sean is a NYYU breakout candidate for next season. He should begin the year in High-A, and from there could earn a promotion to Double-A by the end of the season if things go well. He could throw as many as 140 innings, so there will be no reason to limit him either. Some may be surprised if he posts big numbers next year, but I will not.