2024 breakout candidate: Justin Lange (with video)
6-foot-4
220-pounds
Starting pitcher
Right-handed pitcher
22-years-old
Drafted in the 1st round (34th pick) of the 2020 draft by the San Diego Padres
NYYU ranking: 38
The Luke Voit era was a fun time to be a Yankees fan. He was an energetic, excitable player who got the fans going and hit a bunch of homeruns. Alas, his stay with the Yankees came to an end when Anthony Rizzo showed up, and the Yankees worked out a trade with the Padres to get Justin Lange.
At the time, Lange was a first-round pick who was pitching in rookie ball. The Yankees sent him to the FCL for his first season with the club and the results were a mixed bag. On the plus side, he struck out 51 in just 36.1 innings and had a .215 average against. On the negative side, he had 30 walks and a 6.44 ERA in 36.1 innings.
2023 was a year of progress. Lange finished the year with a 4.75 ERA and 131 K : 63 BB in 85.1 innings. His walk rate improved along with his ERA, and he advanced from Low-A to High-A by the end of the season. His average against, which seemed like it couldn’t get any lower, dropped to .197.
As can be easily deciphered from his statistics, Lange has one major flaw; his control. Aside from that, however, he has nasty stuff and impressive velocity. Lange has a fastball that sits in the mid-90’s and regularly hit 98 mph this season. The pitch is a two-seamer and has about 12 inches of lateral movement with 18 inches of break. It’s filthy. He combines that with a changeup that has even more movement, a cutter with 30 inches of induced vertical break, and a slider and curveball.
It may be easy to look at Justin’s statistics and say his walk rate did not improve much. That superficial opinion ignores that fact that he improved his walk rate this year all while moving up two levels. It is often underestimated how hard that is to do. The umpires have stricter strike zones at higher levels, and he threw more innings than ever before. The key for a guy like Lange is incremental improvement, and he showed that in 2023. If he continues on the current trajectory, he’ll be on track to get the control where it needs to be by the time he reaches the majors. That’s no easy task, but the improvements are encouraging.
Lange has an incredible ceiling if he can fix his control. He has ace potential, though that would require substantial progress in command. On the other hand, he has a floor of never reaching the majors. If his control does not improve from where it is now, it is unlikely that a team could roster him. Worst case scenario, it is likely that his stuff could play up in relief and he could pare down his repertoire. Therefore, it is more likely that he ends up a late inning relief pitcher than to bust completely.
Lange is often forgotten among the top Yankees pitchers but that could quickly change as soon as 2024. He has the stuff to shoot up the rankings even with modest improvement in his command. I’m expecting big things from him next season and he is one of the more likely breakout prospects in the system.