By Greg Corcoran

Every year the Yankees hold a competition in spring training to see who will get the privilege of starting games for the Tampa Tarpons. It has become a yearly rite of passage for minor league enthusiasts such as myself to predict the starting rotation and fail miserably. There are many factors that play into the difficulty of this endeavor including unforetold injuries, innings limitations, unexpected regressions, and huge improvements made at the gas station.

Nevertheless, I’m going to take another crack at it this year.  I will break it into three categories: high probability, good chance, and long shot.

High probability:

Luis Serna has pitched at spring training and has impressed the Yankees brass. He has a deep repertoire, excellent control, and big movement on his pitches. Serna is on the smaller side and his velocity is not as high as some of the other bigtime prospects, but he’s polished and should be able to move quickly.

Trystan Vrieling had some success in the desert. The only way he will not be on the Tampa roster will be if the Yankees opt to have him skip Low-A and move straight to Hudson Valley. He has a nice three pitch package and it was always felt he would move quickly in this system.

Kyle Carr, the Yankees’ third round pick in 2023, will also most likely start his season in Low-A. He has a low-90’s fastball that has touched 97 in the past, and he also throws a sweeping slider and a changeup. Coming from the left side with that kind of repertoire, it would be hard not to give him a shot in Tampa.

Speaking of lefties, Henry Lalane is a shoo-in to be in the Low-A rotation at some point this season. The only question is whether the Yankees will wait until the season progresses to put him there in order to limit his innings. Lalane has surprising control for his size, and a deep pitch mix. He’s one of the most exciting players in the entire farm system.

Carlos Lagrange is just as big as Lalane but throws from the right side instead. His control is not on par with Lalane, but his stuff might be even nastier. He routinely hits triple digits with his fastball. He throws a four-seam, a two-seam, slider, and curveball. Similarly to Lalane, he’ll be at Low-A this year, it’s just a matter of when.

Good chance:

Cade Smith was the sixth-round pick in the 2023 draft for the Yankees. He has a fastball that sits in the mid-90’s with a ton of vertical break. He also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup. Smith has had some trouble with control in the past, but the Yankees development team has shown the ability to fix that quickly with other starters. He reminds me of Will Warren so if the adjustments help he could make quick work of the low minors.

Will Brian began the year in Low-A in 2023 but succumbed to injury early in the season. Brian has a very good four-pitch mix with a ton of movement on all of his pitches. He sits low-90’s and topped out at 94.2 last year with his fastball. If he’s healthy again, he could slot into the rotation in Low-A.

Ryan Harvey had a mini-breakout towards the end of 2023. He pitched well in the FCL and was promoted to Low-A late in the season. His fastball tops out at 93 but has excellent sinking movement. He also throws a slider and curveball. If he can bring the velocity up a bit and limit the free passes, Harvey could be in line for some more starts this year in Low-A or higher.

Josh Grosz has college experience at a big university with success against good competition. He has a fastball in the low-90’s topping out at 95, and he also throws a changeup and slider. Word is the Yankees were able to get more velocity out of him at the gas station this year. The Yankees picked him up in the 11^th round of the 2023 draft, and he could prove to be a steal.

Bryce Warrecker was drafted in the last round of the 2023 draft by the Yankees. The 6-foot-8 behemoth had a fastball that barely scraped the 90’s in 2023, but that has already gone up to 92-93 in spring training. He showcased his nasty sweeper in his first spring training game as well. Warrecker has surprising control and athleticism for a guy his size too. The Yankees may want to give him a shot to start in the Low-A rotation. He used a changeup in college so if there were some improvements to that he could start.

Long shots

Eric Reyzelman impressed scouts with his upper-90’s fastball in college. It was so good he really didn’t have the need for a second pitch. He didn’t get a chance to play much in the minors last year but if he’s learned a second or third pitch Reyzelman could switch roles in his first full season. It’s more likely he begins the year in the bullpen and has the potential to be a fast mover.

Brian Hendry has a similar profile to Reyzelman. His fastball hit 98 this year in college and he has an above average slider to go along with it. The Yankees could put him in the rotation if he’s learned that elusive third pitch this offseason.

Brady Rose or Andrew Landry could make their way into the rotation if they had strong offseasons as well. Rose is a lefty whose fastball reached 95 last season in college, and Landry started 12 games in college last year at Southern Louisiana. He could be called upon in the rotation this year if his stuff has improved in the offseason.

Cade Austin was nasty in relief last year for University of South Carolina, and could be moved to the rotation if he made some improvements in the offseason. It’s more likely a relief profile, but I the gas station has worked bigger miracles than this in the past.

Jordarlin Mendoza and Allen Facundo both started games in the FCL last year. If either comes to camp with improved stuff or control, they could be candidates to start for Low-A Tampa as well.

Summary:

With a plethora of options for the Low-A rotation, only one thing is certain. The competition will be stiff. The Yankees are yet again in a fantastic position to produce more top pitching prospects. Low-A is one of the most entertaining levels to watch in the minor leagues. With all of the fresh faces, these guys have a chance to make a name for themselves in 2024.

The post What starting pitchers will break camp with Low-A Tampa? appeared first on NYY UNDERGROUND.

by Greg Corcoran

In the 2023 offseason one thing is for sure. The Yankees have already lost a ton of pitching depth and some high-end talent. They are, however, in a great position to replace that talent as early as next season. Between the draft, international prospects coming stateside, and players returning from injury, the Yankees have the goods on the farm to rapidly replenish the upper levels of the system with pitching. They also have a catcher returning from injury who could make a huge splash next year once he’s healthy. Starting with Engelth Urena, the lone positional prospect on this list, the names below could help mitigate the sting of the recent losses the farm system has suffered.

1. Engelth Urena – C, 5-foot-11, 196-pounds, right-handed, 19-years-old – Urena was expected to make his stateside debut in 2023, but injuries had their way with him, and he missed the entire season. Yankees insiders were expecting him to have a breakout season before he went down. By all accounts, Urena can do it all. He has a plus glove, framework, and arm defensively. Offensively, he has big power and makes frequent hard contact without striking out much. Missing almost two full seasons with injury will hurt his development, and that’s the biggest question going forward. There’s potential here for a big splash in 2024, so keep an eye on this name.

2. Angel Benitez – SP, 6-foot-7, 204-pounds, RHP, 20-years-old – Benitez missed all of 2023 after getting Tommy John Surgery following the 2022 season. In 2022, he threw 17 innings and had 24 K : 7 BB and a 1.06 ERA. Before the injury, Benitez sat in the mid-90’s and topped out at 97 mph with a fastball that has cutting action and ride. He also possesses a plus changeup and a sweeper that is already above average. He has a low arm slot with good extension. Many are excited about Carlos Lagrange and Henry Lalane, but what most don’t realize is that Angel Benitez might be the best of the bunch. Benitez will make the journey to the United States next season but mark my words, he will not do it quietly. He should be one of the most talked about players in the FCL next season if he can remain healthy.

3. Eric Reyzelman – – 6-foot-2, 188-pounds, SP, RHP, 22-years-old – The Yankees drafted Reyzelman in the 5th round in 2022 and he already had an upper 90’s fastball at that time. In college, he mainly threw the fastball, but he needs to develop his slider and changeup more to take his game to the next level. The Yankees bought on the upside and they’re hoping it pays off. It will if the development team can keep him healthy and get those secondary pitches going. This year he only threw 7.2 innings due to various nagging injuries. The biggest thing for Reyzelman will be to get innings under his belt next season. If he’s able to stay healthy, he could begin to make a name for himself in 2024. At the least, he has late inning relief pitcher written all over him.

4. Cam Schlittler – SP, 6-foot-6, 210-pounds, RHP, 22-years-old – Schlittler missed time due to various injuries in 2023, but he did manage to get 46 innings in. With the exception of the GCL, he struggled to keep his ERA down. Overall he had 50 K : 21 BB and a 4.11 ERA in 46 innings over three levels. Schlittler’s velocity dropped due to the injuries in 2023, sitting at around 90 mph and topping out at 93. He gets good vertical break on the four-seam fastball, but not much side-to-side movement. The slider, curveball, and changeup have good movement profiles though he often struggles with location. If he can improve his fastball velocity and movement while also increasing command, Schlittler could break out. He certainly has the size to do just that. Before he was drafted, he was hitting 95 mph so it’s probably in there somewhere.

5. Luis Gil – SP, 6-foot-2, 185-pounds, RHP, 23-years-old – Having thrown just eight innings in the past two seasons, Luis Gil had become a bit of a forgotten man. He returned late in the 2023 season and was flashing the same upper 90’s velocity as before with a knockout slider and improved changeup. Gil could return to form in 2024 and make a splash in the major league rotation or bullpen. First order of business will be to prove he can cut down on the walks. His first major league experience in 2021 was tantalizing, with a 3.07 ERA and 38 K : 19 BB in 29.1 innings. That performance would be a welcome addition to the Yankees in 2024. Still just 23, Gil has plenty of time to grow and carve out a nice career.

6. Brendan Beck – SP, 6-foot-2, 205-pounds, RHP, 25-years-old – Beck came back late in 2023 and had an eye-opening performance in 10 starts, mostly with the High-A Renegades. He ended up with a 1.59 ERA and 40 K : 7 BB in 34 innings. Beck has a low-90’s fastball that has reached the upper-90’s in the past. He pairs the fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup. He has excellent command of all of these pitches and 2024 may be his coming out party. With the restrictions removed, Beck could have a similar breakout to what we saw from Drew Thorpe in 2023. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Beck among the top 10 prospects by this time next year.

7. Will Brian – SP, 5-foot-11, 220-pounds, LHP, 24-years-old – The Yankees originally drafted Will Brian with the expectation that he would be a reliever at the next level. They soon came to realize that he had four pitches with nasty movement which placed him in the conversation for the starting rotation. As such he began the 2023 season in that role, though he ended up injuring his UCL after just 6.1 innings. He should make it back at the tail end of 2024. With his recent velocity increase to the low-90’s topping out at 94.2 and filthy secondary pitches, Brian could begin to make his move through the organization shortly after his return.

8. Trystan Vrieling – SP, 6-foot-4, 200-pounds, RHP, 23-years-old – Vrieling didn’t debut until the Arizona Fall League in 2023. The performance was encouraging, especially considering the time he missed due to injury. Vrieling’s current go-to pitches are his high spin curveball and slider. He mixes the breaking balls with a fastball that sits 90-93 and tops out at 96. It was encouraging to see him strike out 15 in just 10.2 innings in the AFL, though his walk rate and ERA (5.06) could use some improvement. With a full, healthy offseason I’d expect both to improve and Vrieling could be in for a big 2024.

9. Luis Serna – SP, 5-foot-11, 162-pounds, RHP, 19-years-old – Serna made some noise when he debuted in the FCL as a 17-year-old and had a 1.96 ERA with 56 K : 17 BB in 41.1 innings. Unfortunately, he missed a lot of time due to nagging injuries in 2023 and managed just 19.1 innings. Serna has a four-pitch mix, all of which have good movement. He commands his arsenal as well as any 19-year-old around. His fastball sits at 92 mph and tops out at 94. He has a slider, curveball, and a changeup that might be the best in the system now that Drew Thorpe is gone. Serna has the polish to move quickly and could reach High-A by the end of 2024.

10. Omar Gonzalez – SP, 6-foot-4, 175-pounds, RHP, 18-years-old – Gonzalez had a fantastic debut season in 2022, with a 0.44 ERA and 36 K : 9 BB in 20.1 innings in the DSL. Unfortunately, he succumbed to Tommy John Surgery shortly after the start of the 2023 DSL season. Gonzalez is a strikeout machine and has a low-90’s fastball that has touched 93 with high spin rates and movement. He also throws a slider and a changeup which could both be above average. The early news in camp in 2023 was that his stuff had improved across the board, including velocity. Now we will have to wait until he comes back from injury to see if he can sustain those improvements. When he comes back, he should be in the United States, but that may not happen until 2025.

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5-foot-11

220-pounds

Starting Pitcher

Left-handed

24-years-old

Were it not for an early injury that cost him the season, Will Brian may have had a huge breakout in 2023. The Yankees drafted Brian in the 10^th round of the 2022 draft. It was initially thought that he would be a reliever at the next level. Due to a significant uptick in stuff Brian was made a starter and the early returns were good.

Brian had a successful college career, mostly as a reliever. He had his best season in 2022, when he had 53 K : 14 BB in 39.1 innings while sporting a 1.83 ERA at Eastern Kentucky. That year he was drafted by the Yankees and threw two innings in the minors. 1.1 of those innings were in Low-A, where he struck out all four of the batters he faced in his first appearance.

Brian spent the offseason working to increase his velocity and it worked. He came into 2023 a starting pitcher primed to explode onto the scene. Alas, he threw 6.1 innings and then succumbed to a an injury which cost him the rest of the season. It is unknown at this time what the injury was, but I have not heard that he had Tommy John Surgery. He had 8 K : 10 BB in those 6.1 innings with a 4.26 ERA. It’s clear something was off, as Brian had phenomenal control leading up to that point.

He came to camp in 2023 with a velocity increase to low-90’s topping out at 94.2. That fastball averages 12-18 inches of run and 18 inches of induced vertical drop. His curveball, meanwhile, has an insanely good movement profile with 53-60 inches of vertical break and 12 inches of horizontal break. In his second start he introduced a slider with nasty movement. He even threw a changeup which has tail and break. He had difficulty controlling these offerings in the early going, but when he comes back I suspect he will return to previous form.

Depending on what the injury was, Brian could begin the season on the injured list. When he returns Yankees fans could be in for a treat. He’ll likely start back in Low-A but could move fast if the velocity he was able to gain returns. With the movement he gets on his pitches, it’s going to be hard to square him up.

Brian has increased his ceiling from a middle reliever to a back end starter, and he may not be done improving. With the velocity increase, it is likely that he would be able to hit the higher end of his range in relief. Spin and movement are his biggest strength, and that is likely to return to baseline after surgery. At the least, he profiles as a middle reliever with good control. As a lefty, he will get many opportunities to get there.

Brian may start 2023 on the IL, but his return could see him move quickly through the minors. The biggest thing will be to get innings under his belt. With a good season, the Yankees will have another nice lefty prospect in their system to add to the mix. Keep his name on your radar, he may become a must-know prospect by the end of the season.

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11/6/2023

Here’s the last ten prospects in the Beyond the top 30 series. There are also some bonus rankings at the end. Some of these guys could be top 30 by next year.

61. Blane Abeyta – 6-foot-3, 220-pounds, SP, RHP, 25-years-old – Abeyta is another prospect who took a step back in a few categories this year. His ERA ballooned to 5.67 and he let up 18 homeruns compared to six the year prior. Paradoxically, his strikeout and walk rate both improved this season despite the increase in ERA. He had the same average against, and he threw a career-high 127 innings. Abeyta was an undrafted free agent, but it was in 2020. He likely would have been drafted in the top 10 rounds otherwise. His fastball, which once sat 91-94, now sits 92-96 mph. His best secondary offering is his slider which is above average to plus. He also throws a changeup and curveball which are still in the development stages. The Yankees keep trotting him out as a starter which tells me there is something more there. He’ll likely start back in Somerset in 2024 and if he has made some improvements could be in Triple-A before the end of the season. A move to the bullpen could speed along his development as well.
62. Will Brian – 5-foot-11, 220-pounds, SP, LHP, 24-years-old – Brian likely would have been a breakout player if he had been able to stay healthy in 2023. Alas, he only managed to throw 6.1 innings before succumbing to Tommy John Surgery. We will be lucky to see him at all next season, but there’s a silver lining. He came to camp in 2023 with a velocity increase to low-90’s topping out at 94.2. That fastball averages 12-18 inches of run and 18 inches of induced vertical drop. His curveball, meanwhile, has an insanely good movement profile with 53-60 inches of vertical break and 12 inches of horizontal break. In his second start he introduced a slider with nasty movement. He even threw a changeup which has tail and break. He had difficulty controlling these offerings in the early going, but when he finally does come back, he could really break out.
63. Hans Montero – 5-foot-9, 160-pounds, SS, RHB, 19-years-old – One of the more hyped international signings, Montero finally began to show some of his potential this year in the FCL. He hit .257/.419/.404/.823 with five homeruns, six doubles, three triples, and 17 SB in 53 games. He also had 48 K : 44 BB. Compared to his previous two seasons, this was a drastic improvement. One thing is for sure, Hans can play a solid shortstop. He can play all around the diamond, with 22 games at third and three games at second this season. He has a long way to go, but if he can continue making strides offensively the Yankees may have a good one on their hands. He’ll likely get some time in Low-A next season once some of the bigger names either move up, get hurt, or prove they’re not ready for Low-A.
64. Baron Stuart – 6-foot-4, 209-pounds, SP, RHP, 24-years-old – It’s impressive when your system can develop undrafted free agents as effectively as draft prospects. The Yankees deployed Stuart as a starter in Low-A this year and then promoted him to High-A despite some bigger names, high ceiling arms being options. Baron didn’t have a great statistical season, but he was effective and showed promising stuff. He finished with a 4.47 ERA and 85 K : 46 BB in 100.2 innings. He had a .237 average against. Stuarts bugaboo this season was the walks. If he can rein that in, Stuart could really break out in 2024. Stuart throws a two-seam fastball which sits in the low-90’s and touches 95. He has a slider and a changeup which he uses effectively. The two-seamer has an excellent movement profile, as does the changeup. His slider has mostly vertical break but can be above average at times. The Yankees’ development team will look to get a bit more velocity out of him and help him with his control. He’s pitching in the AFL this offseason working on his stuff. His first stop next season will be High-A. Depending on his offseason work, we may be hearing his name a lot more often soon.
65. Beau Brewer – 6-foot-1, 215-pounds, 3B, RHB, 21-years-old – Brewer was taken in the 19th round in the 2022 draft and was known at that time as a very good contact hitter. Those skills translated to the minors well, as he hit .280/.410/.293/.703. What also translated, however, was the lack of power. This season was a nice building block for Brewer going forward, and he is still young enough that the extra base hits could come later. I’m sure this will be priority #1 and 1a in the offseason. His offseason priority will be to gain strength and retool his swing for more loft. He’ll likely spend most of the year in High-A.
66. Jerson Alejandro – 6-foot-6, 255-pounds, SP, RHP, 17-years-old – It’s hard to imagine a 255-pound 17-year-old, but Alejandro is that guy. He’s a physical beast and was a high-profile pitching sign out of the Dominican Republic. Jerson had a decent first season in the DSL, with a 4.5 ERA and 36 K : 17 BB in 36 innings. Alejandro has a fastball that has already peaked at 98 mph that he pairs with a top-notch changeup and a curveball. He should break camp with the FCL next year and will hope to follow the same trajectory as Carlos Lagrange and Henry Lalane, getting some innings in the USA while learning to master his craft.
67. Omar Gonzalez – 6-foot-4, 175-pounds, SP, RHP, 18-years-old – Gonzalez had a fantastic debut season in 2022, with a 0.44 ERA and 36 K : 9 BB in 20.1 innings in the DSL. Unfortunately, he succumbed to Tommy John Surgery shortly after the start of the 2023 DSL season. Gonzalez is a strikeout machine and has a low-90’s fastball that has touched 93 with high spin rates and movement. He also throws a slider and a changeup which could both be above average. The early news in camp in 2023 was that his stuff had improved across the board, including velocity. Now we will have to wait until he comes back from injury to see if he can sustain those improvements. When he comes back, he should be in the United States, but that may not happen until 2025.
68. Angel Benitez – 6-foot-7, 204-pounds, SP, RHP, 20-years-old – Benitez missed all of 2023 after getting Tommy John Surgery following the 2022 season. In 2022, he threw 17 innings and had 24 K : 7 BB and a 1.06 ERA. Before the injury, Benitez sat in the mid-90’s and topped out at 97 mph with a fastball that has cutting action and ride. He also possesses a plus changeup and a sweeper that is already above average. He has a low arm slot with good extension. Many are excited about Carlos Lagrange and Henry Lalane, but what most don’t realize is that Angel Benitez might be the best of the bunch. Benitez will make the journey to the United States next season but mark my words, he will not do it quietly. He should be one of the most talked about players in the FCL next season.
69. Danny Flatt – 6-foot-4, 190-pounds, SP, RHP, 19-years-old – Flatt has a low-90’s fastball that got up to 95 mph during his senior season. He also has a high spin curveball and slider. He even throws a changeup. That’s four pitches for a high school level pitcher. To get that kind of package in the 14th round was impressive for the Yankees. Like most high school pitchers, the Yankees have a lot of work to do on the development side with Flatt, but he has an immense ceiling that could be tapped. He’s already a spin-rate darling, as the fastball has 2300 rpm, the changeup 2100 rpm, the curveball 3036 rpm, and the slider at 2924. A hard worker and a big kid, the Yankees should be able to get more velocity and movement on his pitches. They’ll have plenty of time to develop him since he’s a high school draftee. They haven’t drafted a guy quite like Flatt in the past, but he has a profile that I have confidence the Yankees can develop. They’ve had success with Sean Hermann and Brock Selvidge out of high school recently, and Flatt could be the next exciting guy with a big ceiling.
70. Sebastian Keane – 6-foot-3, 187-pounds, SP/RP, RHP, 23-years-old – The Yankees took it slow with Keane in 2023, who spent most of the season in the FCL despite being 23. The 2022 18^th round pick was clearly overqualified for the level, with 35 K : 16 BB, a 1.71 ERA, and a .126 average against. He dominated inferior competition. He was finally promoted to Low-A at the end of the season where he made two starts. He finished the year with a 2.56 ERA and 43 K : 19 BB in 31.2 innings. Keane throws three pitches, all of which have excellent movement. He has a sinker that ranges from 91-94 mph and has 12 inches of horizontal movement and 18 inches of vertical break. His changeup has 12-18 inches of horizontal movement with 30 inches of drop. His curveball has 45 inches of break and 6-12 inches of sweep. Keane didn’t get a chance to pitch in the long season leagues this year, but I’ll bet he will next year. Given the competition he faces, he’ll likely be a reliever unless he has a significant uptick this offseason. He’s a sleeper going into 2024.

Bonus ranks:

Luis Arejula – 6-foot-1, 170-pounds, RP, RHP, 21-years-old – On the surface, Arejula’s numbers do not jump off the page. That’s not where you’ll find his appeal. Arejula has a fastball with excellent movement, as well as a nasty changeup and a slider that has good vertical and horizontal break. He sits in the low-90’s and tops out at 95.4 mph with the fastball. In 2023, he had a 4.96 ERA and 17 K : 10 BB in 16.1 innings. Arujela could have a Harrison Cohen/Mason Vinyard-like breakout next year if he gets more innings and can figure it out.

Tanner Myatt – 6-foot-7, 245-pounds, RP, RHP, 25-years-old – Myatt has managed to continue to keep a low profile despite his massive size because of the giants surrounding him (both figuratively and literally). The fact of the matter is that he had a good season in his own right. He had a 2.78 ERA and 72 K : 40 BB in 58.1 innings for Somerset. Batters hit just .160 against him, which is in line with his career numbers. The challenge for Myatt comes with his control, which is understandable given his long levers. If he can find that, he could be a high-leverage reliever in the major leagues. He’s older, but it’s not too late. Some players don’t find their command until their mid to late 20’s. He throws an upper-90’s fastball, changeup, cutter, and slider. He has done some work to simplify his pitches and delivery to attempt to make everything more repeatable. So far it has not resulted in a significant decrease in the walks. He’ll likely start in Triple-A with all the other high ceiling relievers in the system and could help the big-league team if the above improvements are made. Myatt might be a minor league free agent after this year. If so, all bets are off.

Christian Zazueta – 6-foot-3, 163-pounds, SP, RHP, 19-years-old – Zazueta throws four pitches and has good command. This year in the DSL, he threw 52 innings and had a 3.29 ERA with 50 K : 16 BB. He had a .211 average against. He appears ready to take the next step in his career and make the leap to the FCL. Rail thin, with some weight gain and strength training Christian is expected to gain 5-6 mph on his fastball as he develops. The FCL rotation is going to be loaded next year.

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