By Greg Corcoran

Every year the Yankees hold a competition in spring training to see who will get the privilege of starting games for the Tampa Tarpons. It has become a yearly rite of passage for minor league enthusiasts such as myself to predict the starting rotation and fail miserably. There are many factors that play into the difficulty of this endeavor including unforetold injuries, innings limitations, unexpected regressions, and huge improvements made at the gas station.

Nevertheless, I’m going to take another crack at it this year.  I will break it into three categories: high probability, good chance, and long shot.

High probability:

Luis Serna has pitched at spring training and has impressed the Yankees brass. He has a deep repertoire, excellent control, and big movement on his pitches. Serna is on the smaller side and his velocity is not as high as some of the other bigtime prospects, but he’s polished and should be able to move quickly.

Trystan Vrieling had some success in the desert. The only way he will not be on the Tampa roster will be if the Yankees opt to have him skip Low-A and move straight to Hudson Valley. He has a nice three pitch package and it was always felt he would move quickly in this system.

Kyle Carr, the Yankees’ third round pick in 2023, will also most likely start his season in Low-A. He has a low-90’s fastball that has touched 97 in the past, and he also throws a sweeping slider and a changeup. Coming from the left side with that kind of repertoire, it would be hard not to give him a shot in Tampa.

Speaking of lefties, Henry Lalane is a shoo-in to be in the Low-A rotation at some point this season. The only question is whether the Yankees will wait until the season progresses to put him there in order to limit his innings. Lalane has surprising control for his size, and a deep pitch mix. He’s one of the most exciting players in the entire farm system.

Carlos Lagrange is just as big as Lalane but throws from the right side instead. His control is not on par with Lalane, but his stuff might be even nastier. He routinely hits triple digits with his fastball. He throws a four-seam, a two-seam, slider, and curveball. Similarly to Lalane, he’ll be at Low-A this year, it’s just a matter of when.

Good chance:

Cade Smith was the sixth-round pick in the 2023 draft for the Yankees. He has a fastball that sits in the mid-90’s with a ton of vertical break. He also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup. Smith has had some trouble with control in the past, but the Yankees development team has shown the ability to fix that quickly with other starters. He reminds me of Will Warren so if the adjustments help he could make quick work of the low minors.

Will Brian began the year in Low-A in 2023 but succumbed to injury early in the season. Brian has a very good four-pitch mix with a ton of movement on all of his pitches. He sits low-90’s and topped out at 94.2 last year with his fastball. If he’s healthy again, he could slot into the rotation in Low-A.

Ryan Harvey had a mini-breakout towards the end of 2023. He pitched well in the FCL and was promoted to Low-A late in the season. His fastball tops out at 93 but has excellent sinking movement. He also throws a slider and curveball. If he can bring the velocity up a bit and limit the free passes, Harvey could be in line for some more starts this year in Low-A or higher.

Josh Grosz has college experience at a big university with success against good competition. He has a fastball in the low-90’s topping out at 95, and he also throws a changeup and slider. Word is the Yankees were able to get more velocity out of him at the gas station this year. The Yankees picked him up in the 11^th round of the 2023 draft, and he could prove to be a steal.

Bryce Warrecker was drafted in the last round of the 2023 draft by the Yankees. The 6-foot-8 behemoth had a fastball that barely scraped the 90’s in 2023, but that has already gone up to 92-93 in spring training. He showcased his nasty sweeper in his first spring training game as well. Warrecker has surprising control and athleticism for a guy his size too. The Yankees may want to give him a shot to start in the Low-A rotation. He used a changeup in college so if there were some improvements to that he could start.

Long shots

Eric Reyzelman impressed scouts with his upper-90’s fastball in college. It was so good he really didn’t have the need for a second pitch. He didn’t get a chance to play much in the minors last year but if he’s learned a second or third pitch Reyzelman could switch roles in his first full season. It’s more likely he begins the year in the bullpen and has the potential to be a fast mover.

Brian Hendry has a similar profile to Reyzelman. His fastball hit 98 this year in college and he has an above average slider to go along with it. The Yankees could put him in the rotation if he’s learned that elusive third pitch this offseason.

Brady Rose or Andrew Landry could make their way into the rotation if they had strong offseasons as well. Rose is a lefty whose fastball reached 95 last season in college, and Landry started 12 games in college last year at Southern Louisiana. He could be called upon in the rotation this year if his stuff has improved in the offseason.

Cade Austin was nasty in relief last year for University of South Carolina, and could be moved to the rotation if he made some improvements in the offseason. It’s more likely a relief profile, but I the gas station has worked bigger miracles than this in the past.

Jordarlin Mendoza and Allen Facundo both started games in the FCL last year. If either comes to camp with improved stuff or control, they could be candidates to start for Low-A Tampa as well.

Summary:

With a plethora of options for the Low-A rotation, only one thing is certain. The competition will be stiff. The Yankees are yet again in a fantastic position to produce more top pitching prospects. Low-A is one of the most entertaining levels to watch in the minor leagues. With all of the fresh faces, these guys have a chance to make a name for themselves in 2024.

The post What starting pitchers will break camp with Low-A Tampa? appeared first on NYY UNDERGROUND.

By Greg Corcoran

Despite trading away a multitude of right-handed starting pitchers over the past several years, it is still the position where the Yankees have the most depth organizationally. Almost inexplicably, they have been able to churn out talent from the draft and international free agency due to an impressive performance from their scouting and development staff.

The Yankees are pretty set with the righties in their current rotation. Most of the question marks surround the lefties. Gerrit Cole just has to stay healthy and he’s going to give you an ace-caliber performance. Marcus Stroman is a known quantity who pitches well season in and season out.

Clarke Schmidt is the third and last righty in the major league rotation. Of the three, he is the biggest question mark. He’s coming off a good season, especially after his slow start. Schmidt has made the necessary adjustments during the season and finished relatively strong. He arrived at camp with significant improvements in his repertoire, including well-needed adjustments to the sinker. I can’t see him doing any worse than last year and would predict that he finishes with better numbers in 2024. Even a repeat of 2023 would be acceptable, but I think there’s more upside coming.

If one of the exciting Triple-A prospects is not ready by the time injury strikes (more to come on that), the Yankees could turn to Luke Weaver. Weaver made three starts for the Yankees at the end of last year and played his best baseball of 2023. He will look to keep that ball rolling and take that success into 2024. Initially he’ll be in a middle relief role, but the Yankees could be the team that finally unlocks his potential as a starter too.

Cody Morris and Cody Poteet have both started games in the past two seasons. Both probably profile better out of the bullpen at this point but could make a few spot starts if the need arises. Despite being afterthoughts in their previous organizations, neither are junk-ballers by any stretch. Any way you slice it, these are good players to have around.

The Yankees will have some of their most exciting pitching prospects one step away in Triple-A to begin the season. Will Warren, Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil, and Yoendrys Gomez are all legitimate starting pitching prospects who could make an impact this season.

Will Warren has a deep repertoire with pitches darting in all directions. It’s not a matter of if but when he will get his shot at the rotation. Clayton Beeter has been relegated to the bullpen by many scouts, but the Yankees still believe in him as a starter. He throws four pitches and can reach the upper-90’s with the fastball. Beeter threw a career high 131.2 innings last year and struck out 165. He’ll need to improve his control to prove he’s major league ready. He has looked good in spring training with a fastball reaching 97 in his first pre-season game.

Luis Gil is the biggest wildcard of the bunch, if for no other reason than his time away due to injury. His fastball sits in the upper-90’s and has reached triple-digits as a starter. He’s always had a filthy slider, but word is he now has an effective changeup as well and has even added a cutter to the mix. It’s hard to predict what direction his career will go now that he’s fully healthy. He could be anything from a breakout starter to a reliever who can’t find enough control to get a shot in the majors. I’ll be keeping an eye on him in Triple-A though. He pitched his first game in spring training yesterday and hit 98 already on the radar with good movement.

Finally healthy for most of the season in 2023, Yoendrys Gomez threw a career high in innings. That only equated to 67.1 innings, but major progress was made. Gomez has a deep repertoire of above average pitches and good control. He could slot nicely into the Randy Vasquez/Jhony Brito role or slip into the rotation under the right circumstances.

The depth doesn’t end there either. Chase Hampton, who has been featured on several of the top 100 prospect lists this offseason, is one of the most exciting pitchers on the farm. His fastball reaches the upper-90’s and all of his pitches move. Hampton could approach the majors quickly and has the high ceiling of a front-end starter.

Zach Messinger was converted from reliever to the starting rotation and has just begun to scratch the surface of his potential. Messinger is a big kid with good stuff and should spend most of the year in Double-A this year. If he can cut down on the walks, he could move with a similar trajectory to Richard Fitts.

Tyrone Yulie and Blane Abeyta are pitchers with big stuff who haven’t been able to put it all together just yet. Both should begin the year in Double-A. Their pitches are good enough to where they could both break out if the control improves and health permits.

The Yankees have three righties in High-A worth monitoring. Justin Lange has incredible stuff with high-end velocity but just needs to improve his control. Jackson Fristoe improved his velocity late last season and is on the verge of a breakout season if he can stay healthy and improve his control. Baron Stuart is a big kid who went from an undrafted free agent to a legitimate prospect in one year. He has a three-pitch repertoire with big movement. His sinker has great spin and has reached 95 mph. This will be a big year for him to show he can continue to improve.

There will be a litany of talented starters competing for spots in the Low-A Charleston rotation. Luis Serna has impressed in spring training already. Trystan Vrieling will make his long-awaited debut this year. Carlos Lagrange has some of the best stuff in the system. Ryan Harvey is coming off a season where his stuff greatly improved and could break out this year.

Josh Grosz, Cade Smith, Brian Warrecker, and others from the 2023 draft are potential sleepers heading into the season. So many have gone into the gas station and came out different pitchers entirely, so you just don’t know what to expect until the season starts.

Finally, the FCL is poised to be an ocean of talent yet again. Angel Benitez is back from injury and might have better stuff than anyone from last year’s crop (high praise). Jerson Alejandro makes his highly anticipated stateside debut this year. Chalniel Arias, Sabier Marte, and Mariano Saloman are lesser-known guys who have the potential to become much bigger names this year. High school draft prospects Danny Flatt and Josh Tiedemann could make names for themselves this year too.

The Yankees farm system is stacked from top to bottom with right-handed starting pitcher prospects. The gravy train keeps on rolling, and that likely won’t change as long as the current scouting and development team stays in place. They are finding the right guys and molding them into prospects at a shocking rate. With all the names mentioned above, there are inevitably going to be several unmentioned players who seemingly come out of nowhere to impress us all in 2024. I’m here for it.

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by Greg Corcoran

In the 2023 offseason one thing is for sure. The Yankees have already lost a ton of pitching depth and some high-end talent. They are, however, in a great position to replace that talent as early as next season. Between the draft, international prospects coming stateside, and players returning from injury, the Yankees have the goods on the farm to rapidly replenish the upper levels of the system with pitching. They also have a catcher returning from injury who could make a huge splash next year once he’s healthy. Starting with Engelth Urena, the lone positional prospect on this list, the names below could help mitigate the sting of the recent losses the farm system has suffered.

1. Engelth Urena – C, 5-foot-11, 196-pounds, right-handed, 19-years-old – Urena was expected to make his stateside debut in 2023, but injuries had their way with him, and he missed the entire season. Yankees insiders were expecting him to have a breakout season before he went down. By all accounts, Urena can do it all. He has a plus glove, framework, and arm defensively. Offensively, he has big power and makes frequent hard contact without striking out much. Missing almost two full seasons with injury will hurt his development, and that’s the biggest question going forward. There’s potential here for a big splash in 2024, so keep an eye on this name.

2. Angel Benitez – SP, 6-foot-7, 204-pounds, RHP, 20-years-old – Benitez missed all of 2023 after getting Tommy John Surgery following the 2022 season. In 2022, he threw 17 innings and had 24 K : 7 BB and a 1.06 ERA. Before the injury, Benitez sat in the mid-90’s and topped out at 97 mph with a fastball that has cutting action and ride. He also possesses a plus changeup and a sweeper that is already above average. He has a low arm slot with good extension. Many are excited about Carlos Lagrange and Henry Lalane, but what most don’t realize is that Angel Benitez might be the best of the bunch. Benitez will make the journey to the United States next season but mark my words, he will not do it quietly. He should be one of the most talked about players in the FCL next season if he can remain healthy.

3. Eric Reyzelman – – 6-foot-2, 188-pounds, SP, RHP, 22-years-old – The Yankees drafted Reyzelman in the 5th round in 2022 and he already had an upper 90’s fastball at that time. In college, he mainly threw the fastball, but he needs to develop his slider and changeup more to take his game to the next level. The Yankees bought on the upside and they’re hoping it pays off. It will if the development team can keep him healthy and get those secondary pitches going. This year he only threw 7.2 innings due to various nagging injuries. The biggest thing for Reyzelman will be to get innings under his belt next season. If he’s able to stay healthy, he could begin to make a name for himself in 2024. At the least, he has late inning relief pitcher written all over him.

4. Cam Schlittler – SP, 6-foot-6, 210-pounds, RHP, 22-years-old – Schlittler missed time due to various injuries in 2023, but he did manage to get 46 innings in. With the exception of the GCL, he struggled to keep his ERA down. Overall he had 50 K : 21 BB and a 4.11 ERA in 46 innings over three levels. Schlittler’s velocity dropped due to the injuries in 2023, sitting at around 90 mph and topping out at 93. He gets good vertical break on the four-seam fastball, but not much side-to-side movement. The slider, curveball, and changeup have good movement profiles though he often struggles with location. If he can improve his fastball velocity and movement while also increasing command, Schlittler could break out. He certainly has the size to do just that. Before he was drafted, he was hitting 95 mph so it’s probably in there somewhere.

5. Luis Gil – SP, 6-foot-2, 185-pounds, RHP, 23-years-old – Having thrown just eight innings in the past two seasons, Luis Gil had become a bit of a forgotten man. He returned late in the 2023 season and was flashing the same upper 90’s velocity as before with a knockout slider and improved changeup. Gil could return to form in 2024 and make a splash in the major league rotation or bullpen. First order of business will be to prove he can cut down on the walks. His first major league experience in 2021 was tantalizing, with a 3.07 ERA and 38 K : 19 BB in 29.1 innings. That performance would be a welcome addition to the Yankees in 2024. Still just 23, Gil has plenty of time to grow and carve out a nice career.

6. Brendan Beck – SP, 6-foot-2, 205-pounds, RHP, 25-years-old – Beck came back late in 2023 and had an eye-opening performance in 10 starts, mostly with the High-A Renegades. He ended up with a 1.59 ERA and 40 K : 7 BB in 34 innings. Beck has a low-90’s fastball that has reached the upper-90’s in the past. He pairs the fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup. He has excellent command of all of these pitches and 2024 may be his coming out party. With the restrictions removed, Beck could have a similar breakout to what we saw from Drew Thorpe in 2023. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Beck among the top 10 prospects by this time next year.

7. Will Brian – SP, 5-foot-11, 220-pounds, LHP, 24-years-old – The Yankees originally drafted Will Brian with the expectation that he would be a reliever at the next level. They soon came to realize that he had four pitches with nasty movement which placed him in the conversation for the starting rotation. As such he began the 2023 season in that role, though he ended up injuring his UCL after just 6.1 innings. He should make it back at the tail end of 2024. With his recent velocity increase to the low-90’s topping out at 94.2 and filthy secondary pitches, Brian could begin to make his move through the organization shortly after his return.

8. Trystan Vrieling – SP, 6-foot-4, 200-pounds, RHP, 23-years-old – Vrieling didn’t debut until the Arizona Fall League in 2023. The performance was encouraging, especially considering the time he missed due to injury. Vrieling’s current go-to pitches are his high spin curveball and slider. He mixes the breaking balls with a fastball that sits 90-93 and tops out at 96. It was encouraging to see him strike out 15 in just 10.2 innings in the AFL, though his walk rate and ERA (5.06) could use some improvement. With a full, healthy offseason I’d expect both to improve and Vrieling could be in for a big 2024.

9. Luis Serna – SP, 5-foot-11, 162-pounds, RHP, 19-years-old – Serna made some noise when he debuted in the FCL as a 17-year-old and had a 1.96 ERA with 56 K : 17 BB in 41.1 innings. Unfortunately, he missed a lot of time due to nagging injuries in 2023 and managed just 19.1 innings. Serna has a four-pitch mix, all of which have good movement. He commands his arsenal as well as any 19-year-old around. His fastball sits at 92 mph and tops out at 94. He has a slider, curveball, and a changeup that might be the best in the system now that Drew Thorpe is gone. Serna has the polish to move quickly and could reach High-A by the end of 2024.

10. Omar Gonzalez – SP, 6-foot-4, 175-pounds, RHP, 18-years-old – Gonzalez had a fantastic debut season in 2022, with a 0.44 ERA and 36 K : 9 BB in 20.1 innings in the DSL. Unfortunately, he succumbed to Tommy John Surgery shortly after the start of the 2023 DSL season. Gonzalez is a strikeout machine and has a low-90’s fastball that has touched 93 with high spin rates and movement. He also throws a slider and a changeup which could both be above average. The early news in camp in 2023 was that his stuff had improved across the board, including velocity. Now we will have to wait until he comes back from injury to see if he can sustain those improvements. When he comes back, he should be in the United States, but that may not happen until 2025.

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