By Greg Corcoran

Every year the Yankees hold a competition in spring training to see who will get the privilege of starting games for the Tampa Tarpons. It has become a yearly rite of passage for minor league enthusiasts such as myself to predict the starting rotation and fail miserably. There are many factors that play into the difficulty of this endeavor including unforetold injuries, innings limitations, unexpected regressions, and huge improvements made at the gas station.

Nevertheless, I’m going to take another crack at it this year.  I will break it into three categories: high probability, good chance, and long shot.

High probability:

Luis Serna has pitched at spring training and has impressed the Yankees brass. He has a deep repertoire, excellent control, and big movement on his pitches. Serna is on the smaller side and his velocity is not as high as some of the other bigtime prospects, but he’s polished and should be able to move quickly.

Trystan Vrieling had some success in the desert. The only way he will not be on the Tampa roster will be if the Yankees opt to have him skip Low-A and move straight to Hudson Valley. He has a nice three pitch package and it was always felt he would move quickly in this system.

Kyle Carr, the Yankees’ third round pick in 2023, will also most likely start his season in Low-A. He has a low-90’s fastball that has touched 97 in the past, and he also throws a sweeping slider and a changeup. Coming from the left side with that kind of repertoire, it would be hard not to give him a shot in Tampa.

Speaking of lefties, Henry Lalane is a shoo-in to be in the Low-A rotation at some point this season. The only question is whether the Yankees will wait until the season progresses to put him there in order to limit his innings. Lalane has surprising control for his size, and a deep pitch mix. He’s one of the most exciting players in the entire farm system.

Carlos Lagrange is just as big as Lalane but throws from the right side instead. His control is not on par with Lalane, but his stuff might be even nastier. He routinely hits triple digits with his fastball. He throws a four-seam, a two-seam, slider, and curveball. Similarly to Lalane, he’ll be at Low-A this year, it’s just a matter of when.

Good chance:

Cade Smith was the sixth-round pick in the 2023 draft for the Yankees. He has a fastball that sits in the mid-90’s with a ton of vertical break. He also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup. Smith has had some trouble with control in the past, but the Yankees development team has shown the ability to fix that quickly with other starters. He reminds me of Will Warren so if the adjustments help he could make quick work of the low minors.

Will Brian began the year in Low-A in 2023 but succumbed to injury early in the season. Brian has a very good four-pitch mix with a ton of movement on all of his pitches. He sits low-90’s and topped out at 94.2 last year with his fastball. If he’s healthy again, he could slot into the rotation in Low-A.

Ryan Harvey had a mini-breakout towards the end of 2023. He pitched well in the FCL and was promoted to Low-A late in the season. His fastball tops out at 93 but has excellent sinking movement. He also throws a slider and curveball. If he can bring the velocity up a bit and limit the free passes, Harvey could be in line for some more starts this year in Low-A or higher.

Josh Grosz has college experience at a big university with success against good competition. He has a fastball in the low-90’s topping out at 95, and he also throws a changeup and slider. Word is the Yankees were able to get more velocity out of him at the gas station this year. The Yankees picked him up in the 11^th round of the 2023 draft, and he could prove to be a steal.

Bryce Warrecker was drafted in the last round of the 2023 draft by the Yankees. The 6-foot-8 behemoth had a fastball that barely scraped the 90’s in 2023, but that has already gone up to 92-93 in spring training. He showcased his nasty sweeper in his first spring training game as well. Warrecker has surprising control and athleticism for a guy his size too. The Yankees may want to give him a shot to start in the Low-A rotation. He used a changeup in college so if there were some improvements to that he could start.

Long shots

Eric Reyzelman impressed scouts with his upper-90’s fastball in college. It was so good he really didn’t have the need for a second pitch. He didn’t get a chance to play much in the minors last year but if he’s learned a second or third pitch Reyzelman could switch roles in his first full season. It’s more likely he begins the year in the bullpen and has the potential to be a fast mover.

Brian Hendry has a similar profile to Reyzelman. His fastball hit 98 this year in college and he has an above average slider to go along with it. The Yankees could put him in the rotation if he’s learned that elusive third pitch this offseason.

Brady Rose or Andrew Landry could make their way into the rotation if they had strong offseasons as well. Rose is a lefty whose fastball reached 95 last season in college, and Landry started 12 games in college last year at Southern Louisiana. He could be called upon in the rotation this year if his stuff has improved in the offseason.

Cade Austin was nasty in relief last year for University of South Carolina, and could be moved to the rotation if he made some improvements in the offseason. It’s more likely a relief profile, but I the gas station has worked bigger miracles than this in the past.

Jordarlin Mendoza and Allen Facundo both started games in the FCL last year. If either comes to camp with improved stuff or control, they could be candidates to start for Low-A Tampa as well.

Summary:

With a plethora of options for the Low-A rotation, only one thing is certain. The competition will be stiff. The Yankees are yet again in a fantastic position to produce more top pitching prospects. Low-A is one of the most entertaining levels to watch in the minor leagues. With all of the fresh faces, these guys have a chance to make a name for themselves in 2024.

The post What starting pitchers will break camp with Low-A Tampa? appeared first on NYY UNDERGROUND.

6-foot-3

195-pounds

Starting pitcher

Right-handed

22-years-old

Drafted: 11^th round out of UC Santa Barbara

By Greg Corcoran

After the draft, the Yankees have a unique process with their pitchers. They will typically send them all to Tampa to showcase their talents rather then playing in live games. At this point, they will identify what each player should work on for the next year.

It also allows the development staff to identify players who may benefit from a change in role. In Ryan Harvey’s case, the Yankees decided that despite being a reliever at UC Santa Barbara, he would be transitioned to a starter role in the minor leagues.

It wasn’t the first time Harvey was in this position, as he started games in the WCL Summer League in both 2021 and 2022. Nevertheless, this would certainly be an adjustment for Ryan.

In 2023, the Yankees had Harvey in Extended Spring Training until the FCL season. He excelled in six FCL starts and was promoted to Low-A Tampa. Overall he had 12 starts with a 3.94 ERA and 48 K : 22 BB in 45.2 innings. This was a solid debut, and also represented a career high in innings.

Harvey has three pitches. He throws a fastball that has 6-12 inches of tailing action and about 18-20 inches of vertical break. This year in Tampa, it clocked in at an average velocity of 90.5, but reached as high as 96. He also has a changeup with 12-18 inches of horizontal movement and 30 inches of break. He rounds out his repertoire with a slider that breaks 6 inches horizontally and 30-36 inches vertically. Both the changeup and the slider average about 82 mph.

This is a good starting point for a pitch package. All of Harvey’s pitches move well. The key going forward for Ryan is to start building his velocity. At 6-foot-3, he’s got the size to do just that if he puts in the offseason work and the Yankees can make some mechanical tweaks to his delivery.

As a reliever in college, Harvey was sitting in the 92-94 range and touching 96-97. The velocity is in there, but he will just have to learn to hold it for longer spurts.

Harvey’s ceiling may not be the most exciting, but with the movement he is able to get on his pitches he could slot in as a back-end starter if he continues to improve. This ceiling will begin to become more realistic if he’s able to gain velocity as time progresses. If he’s moved back to the bullpen, it’s likely that he would regain some of the velocity he had as a collegiate, and he could move through the system quickly.

He’ll likely start 2024 back in Tampa and could advance to High-A if he’s made the necessary improvements this offseason. If he’s moved to the bullpen, his timeframe will likely speed up.

Harvey is another arm in the system with some great qualities. The reason the Yankees have done so well in recent years is because they have so many of these types in their system. A proportion of these arms will take a big step forward with the world class pitching development team they have in place. Ryan Harvey has as much a chance as anyone else to be one of those guys.

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