By Greg Corcoran

Every year the Yankees hold a competition in spring training to see who will get the privilege of starting games for the Tampa Tarpons. It has become a yearly rite of passage for minor league enthusiasts such as myself to predict the starting rotation and fail miserably. There are many factors that play into the difficulty of this endeavor including unforetold injuries, innings limitations, unexpected regressions, and huge improvements made at the gas station.

Nevertheless, I’m going to take another crack at it this year.  I will break it into three categories: high probability, good chance, and long shot.

High probability:

Luis Serna has pitched at spring training and has impressed the Yankees brass. He has a deep repertoire, excellent control, and big movement on his pitches. Serna is on the smaller side and his velocity is not as high as some of the other bigtime prospects, but he’s polished and should be able to move quickly.

Trystan Vrieling had some success in the desert. The only way he will not be on the Tampa roster will be if the Yankees opt to have him skip Low-A and move straight to Hudson Valley. He has a nice three pitch package and it was always felt he would move quickly in this system.

Kyle Carr, the Yankees’ third round pick in 2023, will also most likely start his season in Low-A. He has a low-90’s fastball that has touched 97 in the past, and he also throws a sweeping slider and a changeup. Coming from the left side with that kind of repertoire, it would be hard not to give him a shot in Tampa.

Speaking of lefties, Henry Lalane is a shoo-in to be in the Low-A rotation at some point this season. The only question is whether the Yankees will wait until the season progresses to put him there in order to limit his innings. Lalane has surprising control for his size, and a deep pitch mix. He’s one of the most exciting players in the entire farm system.

Carlos Lagrange is just as big as Lalane but throws from the right side instead. His control is not on par with Lalane, but his stuff might be even nastier. He routinely hits triple digits with his fastball. He throws a four-seam, a two-seam, slider, and curveball. Similarly to Lalane, he’ll be at Low-A this year, it’s just a matter of when.

Good chance:

Cade Smith was the sixth-round pick in the 2023 draft for the Yankees. He has a fastball that sits in the mid-90’s with a ton of vertical break. He also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup. Smith has had some trouble with control in the past, but the Yankees development team has shown the ability to fix that quickly with other starters. He reminds me of Will Warren so if the adjustments help he could make quick work of the low minors.

Will Brian began the year in Low-A in 2023 but succumbed to injury early in the season. Brian has a very good four-pitch mix with a ton of movement on all of his pitches. He sits low-90’s and topped out at 94.2 last year with his fastball. If he’s healthy again, he could slot into the rotation in Low-A.

Ryan Harvey had a mini-breakout towards the end of 2023. He pitched well in the FCL and was promoted to Low-A late in the season. His fastball tops out at 93 but has excellent sinking movement. He also throws a slider and curveball. If he can bring the velocity up a bit and limit the free passes, Harvey could be in line for some more starts this year in Low-A or higher.

Josh Grosz has college experience at a big university with success against good competition. He has a fastball in the low-90’s topping out at 95, and he also throws a changeup and slider. Word is the Yankees were able to get more velocity out of him at the gas station this year. The Yankees picked him up in the 11^th round of the 2023 draft, and he could prove to be a steal.

Bryce Warrecker was drafted in the last round of the 2023 draft by the Yankees. The 6-foot-8 behemoth had a fastball that barely scraped the 90’s in 2023, but that has already gone up to 92-93 in spring training. He showcased his nasty sweeper in his first spring training game as well. Warrecker has surprising control and athleticism for a guy his size too. The Yankees may want to give him a shot to start in the Low-A rotation. He used a changeup in college so if there were some improvements to that he could start.

Long shots

Eric Reyzelman impressed scouts with his upper-90’s fastball in college. It was so good he really didn’t have the need for a second pitch. He didn’t get a chance to play much in the minors last year but if he’s learned a second or third pitch Reyzelman could switch roles in his first full season. It’s more likely he begins the year in the bullpen and has the potential to be a fast mover.

Brian Hendry has a similar profile to Reyzelman. His fastball hit 98 this year in college and he has an above average slider to go along with it. The Yankees could put him in the rotation if he’s learned that elusive third pitch this offseason.

Brady Rose or Andrew Landry could make their way into the rotation if they had strong offseasons as well. Rose is a lefty whose fastball reached 95 last season in college, and Landry started 12 games in college last year at Southern Louisiana. He could be called upon in the rotation this year if his stuff has improved in the offseason.

Cade Austin was nasty in relief last year for University of South Carolina, and could be moved to the rotation if he made some improvements in the offseason. It’s more likely a relief profile, but I the gas station has worked bigger miracles than this in the past.

Jordarlin Mendoza and Allen Facundo both started games in the FCL last year. If either comes to camp with improved stuff or control, they could be candidates to start for Low-A Tampa as well.

Summary:

With a plethora of options for the Low-A rotation, only one thing is certain. The competition will be stiff. The Yankees are yet again in a fantastic position to produce more top pitching prospects. Low-A is one of the most entertaining levels to watch in the minor leagues. With all of the fresh faces, these guys have a chance to make a name for themselves in 2024.

The post What starting pitchers will break camp with Low-A Tampa? appeared first on NYY UNDERGROUND.

by Greg Corcoran

In the 2023 offseason one thing is for sure. The Yankees have already lost a ton of pitching depth and some high-end talent. They are, however, in a great position to replace that talent as early as next season. Between the draft, international prospects coming stateside, and players returning from injury, the Yankees have the goods on the farm to rapidly replenish the upper levels of the system with pitching. They also have a catcher returning from injury who could make a huge splash next year once he’s healthy. Starting with Engelth Urena, the lone positional prospect on this list, the names below could help mitigate the sting of the recent losses the farm system has suffered.

1. Engelth Urena – C, 5-foot-11, 196-pounds, right-handed, 19-years-old – Urena was expected to make his stateside debut in 2023, but injuries had their way with him, and he missed the entire season. Yankees insiders were expecting him to have a breakout season before he went down. By all accounts, Urena can do it all. He has a plus glove, framework, and arm defensively. Offensively, he has big power and makes frequent hard contact without striking out much. Missing almost two full seasons with injury will hurt his development, and that’s the biggest question going forward. There’s potential here for a big splash in 2024, so keep an eye on this name.

2. Angel Benitez – SP, 6-foot-7, 204-pounds, RHP, 20-years-old – Benitez missed all of 2023 after getting Tommy John Surgery following the 2022 season. In 2022, he threw 17 innings and had 24 K : 7 BB and a 1.06 ERA. Before the injury, Benitez sat in the mid-90’s and topped out at 97 mph with a fastball that has cutting action and ride. He also possesses a plus changeup and a sweeper that is already above average. He has a low arm slot with good extension. Many are excited about Carlos Lagrange and Henry Lalane, but what most don’t realize is that Angel Benitez might be the best of the bunch. Benitez will make the journey to the United States next season but mark my words, he will not do it quietly. He should be one of the most talked about players in the FCL next season if he can remain healthy.

3. Eric Reyzelman – – 6-foot-2, 188-pounds, SP, RHP, 22-years-old – The Yankees drafted Reyzelman in the 5th round in 2022 and he already had an upper 90’s fastball at that time. In college, he mainly threw the fastball, but he needs to develop his slider and changeup more to take his game to the next level. The Yankees bought on the upside and they’re hoping it pays off. It will if the development team can keep him healthy and get those secondary pitches going. This year he only threw 7.2 innings due to various nagging injuries. The biggest thing for Reyzelman will be to get innings under his belt next season. If he’s able to stay healthy, he could begin to make a name for himself in 2024. At the least, he has late inning relief pitcher written all over him.

4. Cam Schlittler – SP, 6-foot-6, 210-pounds, RHP, 22-years-old – Schlittler missed time due to various injuries in 2023, but he did manage to get 46 innings in. With the exception of the GCL, he struggled to keep his ERA down. Overall he had 50 K : 21 BB and a 4.11 ERA in 46 innings over three levels. Schlittler’s velocity dropped due to the injuries in 2023, sitting at around 90 mph and topping out at 93. He gets good vertical break on the four-seam fastball, but not much side-to-side movement. The slider, curveball, and changeup have good movement profiles though he often struggles with location. If he can improve his fastball velocity and movement while also increasing command, Schlittler could break out. He certainly has the size to do just that. Before he was drafted, he was hitting 95 mph so it’s probably in there somewhere.

5. Luis Gil – SP, 6-foot-2, 185-pounds, RHP, 23-years-old – Having thrown just eight innings in the past two seasons, Luis Gil had become a bit of a forgotten man. He returned late in the 2023 season and was flashing the same upper 90’s velocity as before with a knockout slider and improved changeup. Gil could return to form in 2024 and make a splash in the major league rotation or bullpen. First order of business will be to prove he can cut down on the walks. His first major league experience in 2021 was tantalizing, with a 3.07 ERA and 38 K : 19 BB in 29.1 innings. That performance would be a welcome addition to the Yankees in 2024. Still just 23, Gil has plenty of time to grow and carve out a nice career.

6. Brendan Beck – SP, 6-foot-2, 205-pounds, RHP, 25-years-old – Beck came back late in 2023 and had an eye-opening performance in 10 starts, mostly with the High-A Renegades. He ended up with a 1.59 ERA and 40 K : 7 BB in 34 innings. Beck has a low-90’s fastball that has reached the upper-90’s in the past. He pairs the fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup. He has excellent command of all of these pitches and 2024 may be his coming out party. With the restrictions removed, Beck could have a similar breakout to what we saw from Drew Thorpe in 2023. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Beck among the top 10 prospects by this time next year.

7. Will Brian – SP, 5-foot-11, 220-pounds, LHP, 24-years-old – The Yankees originally drafted Will Brian with the expectation that he would be a reliever at the next level. They soon came to realize that he had four pitches with nasty movement which placed him in the conversation for the starting rotation. As such he began the 2023 season in that role, though he ended up injuring his UCL after just 6.1 innings. He should make it back at the tail end of 2024. With his recent velocity increase to the low-90’s topping out at 94.2 and filthy secondary pitches, Brian could begin to make his move through the organization shortly after his return.

8. Trystan Vrieling – SP, 6-foot-4, 200-pounds, RHP, 23-years-old – Vrieling didn’t debut until the Arizona Fall League in 2023. The performance was encouraging, especially considering the time he missed due to injury. Vrieling’s current go-to pitches are his high spin curveball and slider. He mixes the breaking balls with a fastball that sits 90-93 and tops out at 96. It was encouraging to see him strike out 15 in just 10.2 innings in the AFL, though his walk rate and ERA (5.06) could use some improvement. With a full, healthy offseason I’d expect both to improve and Vrieling could be in for a big 2024.

9. Luis Serna – SP, 5-foot-11, 162-pounds, RHP, 19-years-old – Serna made some noise when he debuted in the FCL as a 17-year-old and had a 1.96 ERA with 56 K : 17 BB in 41.1 innings. Unfortunately, he missed a lot of time due to nagging injuries in 2023 and managed just 19.1 innings. Serna has a four-pitch mix, all of which have good movement. He commands his arsenal as well as any 19-year-old around. His fastball sits at 92 mph and tops out at 94. He has a slider, curveball, and a changeup that might be the best in the system now that Drew Thorpe is gone. Serna has the polish to move quickly and could reach High-A by the end of 2024.

10. Omar Gonzalez – SP, 6-foot-4, 175-pounds, RHP, 18-years-old – Gonzalez had a fantastic debut season in 2022, with a 0.44 ERA and 36 K : 9 BB in 20.1 innings in the DSL. Unfortunately, he succumbed to Tommy John Surgery shortly after the start of the 2023 DSL season. Gonzalez is a strikeout machine and has a low-90’s fastball that has touched 93 with high spin rates and movement. He also throws a slider and a changeup which could both be above average. The early news in camp in 2023 was that his stuff had improved across the board, including velocity. Now we will have to wait until he comes back from injury to see if he can sustain those improvements. When he comes back, he should be in the United States, but that may not happen until 2025.

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We continue our series of the top 70 prospects in the Yankees’ system with prospects 41-50.

41. Justin Lange – 6-foot-4, 220-pounds, SP, RHP, 22-years-old – One of the highest ceilings in the entire system belongs to Justin Lange. Lange has a fastball that sits in the mid-90’s and regularly hit 98 mph this season. The pitch is a two-seamer and has about 12 inches of lateral movement with 18 inches of break. It’s filthy. He combines that with a changeup that has even more movement, a cutter with 30 inches of induced vertical break, a slider and a curveball. It might make sense for him to pare down his repertoire though because the biggest challenge he faces is control. This past season he had a career best 4.75 ERA and an incredible 131 K in 85.1 innings. The problem is he also had 63 walks. It shouldn’t surprise you to hear that batters hit .197 against him this past year. The most encouraging thing about Lange is that he has incrementally improved every year in the minors. I’d expect that trend to continue, with the key being limiting walks. Much like Fristoe and Lalane, Lange is one of the players on this list who could catapult to become one of the top pitchers in all of minor league baseball if he has a big year in 2024.
42. Eric Reyzelman – 6-foot-2, 188-pounds, SP, RHP, 22-years-old – The Yankees drafted Reyzelman in the 5^th round in 2022 and he already had an upper 90’s fastball at that time. In college, he mainly threw the fastball, but he needs to develop his slider and changeup more to take his game to the next level. The Yankees bought on the upside and they’re hoping it pays off. It will if the development team can keep him healthy and get those secondary pitches going. This year he only threw 7.2 innings due to various nagging injuries. The biggest thing for Reyzelman will be to get innings under his belt next season. If he’s able to stay healthy, he’s a big-time breakout candidate.
43. Chalniel Arias – 6-foot-3, 165-pounds, SP, RHP, 20-years-old – Chalniel was in the DSL to start 2023 and he was so dominant the Yankees brought him stateside for a cup of coffee at the end of the season. Overall he had a 3.09 ERA and 61 K : 17 BB in 46.2 innings. Arias works with a 90-93 mph fastball at the moment with a slider, curve, and changeup at his disposal. He gets swings and misses with all of his offerings. He’s rail thin, so it stands to reason that he will gain velocity in the coming years as he has a lot of room to fill out and gain strength. Arias is another up-and-coming pitching prospect in the system with major potential. I’m looking forward to seeing where he stands by the beginning of next year. He’ll likely be back in the FCL, though a jump to Low-A wouldn’t be shocking.
44. Tristan Vrieling – 6-foot-4, 200-pounds, SP, RHP, 23-years-old – Vrieling had yet to pitch in the minor leagues due to an elbow injury, but he is now pitching in the Arizona Fall League. So far the results have been pretty good. Vrieling has a high spin curveball and slider which project well at the next level. His fastball is 90-93 mph and tops out at 96. The Yankees still have high hopes for this kid, so he remains in the top 50 and could climb significantly next year. Given the time off, I’d expect him to start in Low-A and could move quickly if he has returned to form.
45. Luis Velasquez – 5-foot-10, 155-pounds, RP, RHP, 22-years-old – Velasquez popped up on my radar when I did a deep dive on him early in the season because of his good numbers and found that he was pumping 98 mph fastballs. He also has a slider and a sinker in his arsenal. He averages about 95 mph with his four-seam fastball. With his improved stuff, Velasquez ended up with 77 K : 33 BB and a 1.74 ERA in 62 IP. He had a paltry .132 average against on the season. It’s clear that Luis has nasty stuff and given that he is officially eligible for the Rule V draft, I’d expect him to start moving quickly next year. He pitched well enough in High-A that he could begin the season in Double-A next year. He’s yet another big relief arm in the system that could turn into a high leverage option.
46. Caleb Durbin – 5-foot-6, 185-pounds, 2B, RHB, 23-years-old – The Yankees seem to be cornering the market on vertically challenged players, and I dig it. The Yankees picked up Durbin in a trade for Lucas Luetge, and he acquainted himself well in Double-A this year. He hit .304/.395/.427/.822 with four homeruns, 17 doubles, a triple, and 36 SB in his first season with the Yankees. He’s currently playing in the Arizona Fall League and has looked good so far. He’s a nice piece to have in the system as he closes in on the major leagues and as a high floor, lower ceiling type of player could provide some nice depth for the major league team as soon as next season.
47. Bailey Dees – 6-foot-8, 252-pounds, RP, RHP, 24-years-old – The third piece of the towering triumvirate in Double-A this year was Bailey Dees. Much like Watson and Neely, Dees had an excellent season in 2023. He finished with a 2.6 ERA and 77 K : 27 BB in 62.1 innings. Dees, whose name begs for inappropriate nicknames, had a .170 average against. He could stand to be more economical in his approach though, succumbing to the walk a bit too frequently this season. His control did improve from 2022, so if he can continue the upward trajectory next season the Yankees will have another big, high velocity option to turn to in the bullpen. He should start in Double-A next year with a promotion to Scranton-Wilkes Barre likely in the cards if he performs well enough.
48. Sean Hermann – 6-foot-0, 160-pounds, SP, RHP, 20-years-old – Hermann managed to pitch 112.2 innings this season and made it all the way to High-A at just 20-years-old. In his lone High-A start, he pitched well, with a 5.0 inning performance and five strikeouts while letting up one run. He finished the season on a high note, with a 3.24 ERA in his last six starts. This is great to see in a young player throwing more than double his previous high in innings. The fastball sits low-90’s and he was able to get it as high as 95 this year. What was more impressive was the movement he was able to generate, especially with the fastball. He regularly gets 25-30 inches of vertical break and 18 inches of horizontal break. These are Will Warren-type numbers. He pairs that with a changeup that also moves a ton, and a sweeper that has 6-12 inches of horizontal break. He also throws a cutter which doesn’t move as much but complements his other pitches well. Hermann’s overall numbers are not great. He had a 4.79 ERA and 91 K : 45 BB over 112.2 innings this year. If he can take the strides he made late in the season with him to High-A next year, he should have a much better season and we will be talking about him a lot more.
49. Luis Serna – 5-foot-11, 162-pounds, SP, RHP, 19-years-old – Serna had some early injuries that prevented him from pitching most of the season in 2023. He pitched 19.1 innings later in the FCL season and had 23 K : 8 BB and a 4.19 ERA. Serna already has a four-pitch mix, and all of his pitches move. More importantly, he has excellent control to go along with it. His fastball sits 92 and tops out at 94. His slider and curveball had good sweeping action. The changeup is among the best in the whole system. 2023 was a wash for him, but if he’s healthy next year he should start in Low-A and has the polish to move quickly from there. Serna has big sleeper potential going into 2024.
50. Harrison Cohen – 6-foot-0, 190-pounds, RP, RHP, 24-years-old – An undrafted free agent out of GWU, Harrison transitioned beautifully to the minor leagues in his first season. He made it all the way to Double-A and finished with a 3.61 ERA and 67 K : 26 BB in 52.1 innings this year. He pitched for three different levels this year and put himself on the map as a legitimate relief prospect. Cohen had decent numbers as a starter in college and in the Cape Cod League, but his transition to relief is probably what gives him the best chance to succeed at the next level. Cohen throws a fastball that hits mid-90’s and has good tailing action and vertical movement. He also has a filthy changeup which darts away from lefties and in on righties. He rounds out his repertoire with a slider that has a good induced vertical break. He also has good deception, as hitters have a lot of trouble picking up his pitches and have hit .205 against him. He is a bit reminiscent of David Robertson, which would be the best possible outcome for him. He needs to cut down on the walks, and if he can do that his likelihood of hitting his ceiling will shoot up. He’ll likely start back in Double-A next year.

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