By Greg Corcoran

Every year the Yankees hold a competition in spring training to see who will get the privilege of starting games for the Tampa Tarpons. It has become a yearly rite of passage for minor league enthusiasts such as myself to predict the starting rotation and fail miserably. There are many factors that play into the difficulty of this endeavor including unforetold injuries, innings limitations, unexpected regressions, and huge improvements made at the gas station.

Nevertheless, I’m going to take another crack at it this year.  I will break it into three categories: high probability, good chance, and long shot.

High probability:

Luis Serna has pitched at spring training and has impressed the Yankees brass. He has a deep repertoire, excellent control, and big movement on his pitches. Serna is on the smaller side and his velocity is not as high as some of the other bigtime prospects, but he’s polished and should be able to move quickly.

Trystan Vrieling had some success in the desert. The only way he will not be on the Tampa roster will be if the Yankees opt to have him skip Low-A and move straight to Hudson Valley. He has a nice three pitch package and it was always felt he would move quickly in this system.

Kyle Carr, the Yankees’ third round pick in 2023, will also most likely start his season in Low-A. He has a low-90’s fastball that has touched 97 in the past, and he also throws a sweeping slider and a changeup. Coming from the left side with that kind of repertoire, it would be hard not to give him a shot in Tampa.

Speaking of lefties, Henry Lalane is a shoo-in to be in the Low-A rotation at some point this season. The only question is whether the Yankees will wait until the season progresses to put him there in order to limit his innings. Lalane has surprising control for his size, and a deep pitch mix. He’s one of the most exciting players in the entire farm system.

Carlos Lagrange is just as big as Lalane but throws from the right side instead. His control is not on par with Lalane, but his stuff might be even nastier. He routinely hits triple digits with his fastball. He throws a four-seam, a two-seam, slider, and curveball. Similarly to Lalane, he’ll be at Low-A this year, it’s just a matter of when.

Good chance:

Cade Smith was the sixth-round pick in the 2023 draft for the Yankees. He has a fastball that sits in the mid-90’s with a ton of vertical break. He also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup. Smith has had some trouble with control in the past, but the Yankees development team has shown the ability to fix that quickly with other starters. He reminds me of Will Warren so if the adjustments help he could make quick work of the low minors.

Will Brian began the year in Low-A in 2023 but succumbed to injury early in the season. Brian has a very good four-pitch mix with a ton of movement on all of his pitches. He sits low-90’s and topped out at 94.2 last year with his fastball. If he’s healthy again, he could slot into the rotation in Low-A.

Ryan Harvey had a mini-breakout towards the end of 2023. He pitched well in the FCL and was promoted to Low-A late in the season. His fastball tops out at 93 but has excellent sinking movement. He also throws a slider and curveball. If he can bring the velocity up a bit and limit the free passes, Harvey could be in line for some more starts this year in Low-A or higher.

Josh Grosz has college experience at a big university with success against good competition. He has a fastball in the low-90’s topping out at 95, and he also throws a changeup and slider. Word is the Yankees were able to get more velocity out of him at the gas station this year. The Yankees picked him up in the 11^th round of the 2023 draft, and he could prove to be a steal.

Bryce Warrecker was drafted in the last round of the 2023 draft by the Yankees. The 6-foot-8 behemoth had a fastball that barely scraped the 90’s in 2023, but that has already gone up to 92-93 in spring training. He showcased his nasty sweeper in his first spring training game as well. Warrecker has surprising control and athleticism for a guy his size too. The Yankees may want to give him a shot to start in the Low-A rotation. He used a changeup in college so if there were some improvements to that he could start.

Long shots

Eric Reyzelman impressed scouts with his upper-90’s fastball in college. It was so good he really didn’t have the need for a second pitch. He didn’t get a chance to play much in the minors last year but if he’s learned a second or third pitch Reyzelman could switch roles in his first full season. It’s more likely he begins the year in the bullpen and has the potential to be a fast mover.

Brian Hendry has a similar profile to Reyzelman. His fastball hit 98 this year in college and he has an above average slider to go along with it. The Yankees could put him in the rotation if he’s learned that elusive third pitch this offseason.

Brady Rose or Andrew Landry could make their way into the rotation if they had strong offseasons as well. Rose is a lefty whose fastball reached 95 last season in college, and Landry started 12 games in college last year at Southern Louisiana. He could be called upon in the rotation this year if his stuff has improved in the offseason.

Cade Austin was nasty in relief last year for University of South Carolina, and could be moved to the rotation if he made some improvements in the offseason. It’s more likely a relief profile, but I the gas station has worked bigger miracles than this in the past.

Jordarlin Mendoza and Allen Facundo both started games in the FCL last year. If either comes to camp with improved stuff or control, they could be candidates to start for Low-A Tampa as well.

Summary:

With a plethora of options for the Low-A rotation, only one thing is certain. The competition will be stiff. The Yankees are yet again in a fantastic position to produce more top pitching prospects. Low-A is one of the most entertaining levels to watch in the minor leagues. With all of the fresh faces, these guys have a chance to make a name for themselves in 2024.

The post What starting pitchers will break camp with Low-A Tampa? appeared first on NYY UNDERGROUND.

Greg Corcoran

NYY Undergrounds continues the top 70 prospects series with numbers 51-60

51. Mason Vinyard – 6-foot-2, 210-pounds, RP, RHP, 24-years-old – The Yankees have done a nice job picking up solid undrafted free agents the past couple of years. Vinyard is another example of that. He had a 3.12 ERA, 74 K : 29 BB, and a .194 average against in 60.2 innings this year. He earned a mid-season promotion to High-A, where he performed even better than Low-A. Much like Cohen, Vinyard has a two-seam fastball, changeup, and slider and all of them have good movement profiles. Similarly, he has also struggled with the walk. The fastball is low-90’s and currently tops out at 94. The one thing he has on Cohen is his height. He gets more of a downward plane on his pitches, and this also portends more opportunity for a velo boost in the coming years. Vinyard made it to High-A in his first full season and could move quickly through the system as a reliever. He’ll likely start in High-A again next season and could be in line for a quick promotion if he has a good offseason.
52. Kiko Romero – 5-foot-11, 185-pounds, 1B/3B, LHB, 23-years-old – The Yankees drafted Romero in the 7^th round this year out of Arizona and he held his own in his first taste of professional baseball. Romero proved in college that he has some pop in his bat, hitting 21 homeruns, 17 doubles and four triples in 59 games. You can’t expect those numbers to translate to wooden bats, but he did manage to hit three homeruns, seven doubles and a triple in 29 games between the FCL and Low-A. He finished the minor league season with a .229/.364/.395/.758 line. Romero is known as a good hitter, and I expect him to come into 2024 and improve greatly on those numbers. Not known for great defense at third base, Romero is expected to be a first baseman at the next level. The Yankees have a penchant for working with players to develop their skills at third, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Romero makes the switch at some point much like Tyler Hardman. Romero puts on impressive exit velocity displays, which the Yankees’ analytics department tends to like. He doesn’t have much speed to speak of, which is what you’d expect from a corner infielder. He’s a sleeper and breakout candidate for next year and will likely begin the year in High-A given his experience and success in one of the best college divisions.
53. Antonio Gomez– 6-foot-2, 210-pounds, C, RHB, 21-years-old – 2023 was a year where Gomez took a step back in his development all while other catchers in the system took huge leaps forward. This is a setback for him, but it’s certainly not the end of the line. Last year at this time, it was expected that by the end of the 2023 season he would have to be protected from the Rule V draft. At this point that’s not going to happen; he is at a low risk of getting selected. He hit a disappointing .236/.291/.326/.617 this year with three homeruns, 18 doubles and a triple. He struck out more and walked less than 2022. It’s not all bad news though. Gomez is and always has been a plus defensive catcher. He’s got quickness, framework, and a plus arm. All of this means he will continue to get opportunities, especially with his size and long-term power potential. One down season does not end a career, and Gomez has the talent to turn it around if he puts in the offseason work and makes the right adjustments. He’ll likely be back at High-A next season and hopefully finds his stroke.
54. Nick Judice – 6-foot-8, 230-pounds, RP, RHP, 22-years-old – Judice was the Yankees 8th round pick in the 2023 draft, and he immediately strikes me as the type of guy the Yankees could turn into a breakout starting pitcher. At the least, he has shutdown reliever potential. The Yankees sent him directly to their training facility rather than have him pitch in games, which tells me they saw something they could work with him in their scouting. If it’s a third pitch, he’ll likely be a starting pitcher next year. If it’s velocity, strength, and engaging his lower half then he likely stays a reliever. He currently works with a 92-95 mph fastball that has hit the upper 90’s a few times. He also has a wipeout slider and throws from a wide angle. He’s an exciting pitcher no matter how you slice it, and depending on how he looks coming out of the training facility we could see next year’s version of Chase Hampton or Danny Watson. I’d be happy with either.
    

    Nicholas Judice (@YD_RedSox | @ULM_BSB | '23) allowed one run in 4 innings w/ 7 Ks and 2 BBs. FB 91-93, SL 83-86, CH/SPL 81-84. Worked both off-speed pitches to both sides of the plate w/ the SL varying shapes and missing the most bats@B_Sakowski_PG #PGCape pic.twitter.com/A7DTmtVXpJ

    — PG College Baseball (@PGCollegeBall) June 20, 2023

55. Cade Smith – 6-foot-1, 190-pounds, SP, RHP, 21-years-old – The Yankees snagged Smith in the 6th round of the draft out of Mississippi State, where he struggled in an abbreviated 2023 season after a good 2022. Smith has a 92-95 mph fastball that has reached 97 and has 20 inches of vertical break. He also has a hard slider and a feel for his curveball with the makings of a changeup. His main drawback is control, but the pitch mix sounds awfully familiar. His repertoire is eerily similar to a guy the Yankees once drafted in the 8th round, Will Warren. The Yankees did the same thing with Smith as they did with Judice, sending him to the training facility. He’s one of the highest prospects on my radar as a breakout candidate for 2024. Cade will likely begin in High-A if the adjustments have resulted in increased command.
56. Gabriel Terrero – 5-foot-6, 169-pounds, 2B, SH, 18-years-old – Terrero spent his first minor league season in the DSL and has what is becoming a familiar profile in the Yankees’ system. He’s small in stature, contact oriented, athletic, speedy, and possesses surprising power for his size. He hit .299/.407/.533/.940 in the DSL this year with 35 K : 22 BB in 37 games. Terrero hit seven homeruns, nine doubles and a triple with 14 SB on the year. He has been billed as a candidate to become the next Keiner Delgado or Enmanuel Tejeda, which is high praise.
57. Jared Wegner – 6-foot-0, 220-pounds, OF, RHB, 24-years-old – Wegner was the 9^th round pick in the 2023 draft and came out of the gates performing well right away. In college, he had 15 homeruns and showed a mature approach collecting 33 walks in just 43 games. When he got to the minor leagues, it was more of the same. He hit .275/.341/.513/.853 with four homeruns, seven doubles, and 25 K : 8 BB in 24 games. Wegner is another exit velocity darling, with an average of 93 mph and frequently reaching 110. Scouts feel he is a bit too slow for the outfield, but the Yankees will undoubtedly give him the tools to increase his quickness. He can hit and as a result the Yankees plan to challenge him quickly. He’ll likely start 2024 in High-A and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in Double-A before long.
58. Edgar Barclay – 5-foot-10, 200-pounds, RP, LHP, 25-years-old – The Yankees don’t have many left-handed relievers in their farm system, which gives Barclay some value. He answered the bell this year with a 3.91 ERA and 100 K : 44 BB in 78.1 innings despite being moved back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen. Barclay is a low-velocity pitcher with exceptional movement on his pitches. His fastball gets a ton of natural tail to it, and his changeup drops off the table with 12-18 inches of horizontal break as well. His curveball has good downward movement, and he uses all three pitches frequently. He finished strong in Triple-A where he was being used as a fill in starter. His fastball dips below 90 often but reaches 92-93 as well. Barclay could be a useful bullpen arm as soon as next season and will likely begin back in Triple-A.
59. Carlos Narvaez – 5-foot-11, 190-pounds, C/1B, RHB, 24-years-old- Carlos Narvaez is going to be a major league baseball player. Whether he ever does that with the Yankees largely depends on factors outside of his control. Narvaez lacks the impressive ceiling of Austin Wells, Ben Rice, or even Antonio Gomez. What he does have, however, is the skills to be a very good catcher at the major league level and a bat that should at least earn him a backup catcher role in the future. This year he hit .239/.370/.397/.766 with 12 homeruns and 18 doubles with a 108 : 64 K : BB. He spent most of the year in Scranton-Wilkes Barre and is ready for a major league role if a position opens. Narvaez is eligible for minor league free agency this offseason and will likely find a job if the Yankees don’t add him to the 40-man roster.
60. Engelth Urena – 5-foot-11, 196-pounds, C, RHB, 19-years-old – Engelth was someone scouts and teams were excited about heading into the 2023 season and many were expecting a breakout. Unfortunately, he got hurt and we will have to wait until next year to see that happen. Urena has all the tools to make him successful as a catcher. He makes contact, is patient, has power, and plays a plus defensive catcher. Last year he hit three homeruns in just 11 games in the DSL and had a .932 OPS. He’s a player to watch in 2024 as another catcher who could break out in this system. He’s one of the first names I can think of that could go from outside of the top 50 to inside the top 20 in just one season if he can stay healthy. Given the missed opportunities in the FCL this year, the Yankees may opt to send him straight to Low-A if he comes to camp looking ready. If not, we’ll see him in the FCL next year and he could quickly become a much more recognizable name.

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