A Turnaround for the Ages

Rodón’s journey with the Yankees has been anything but smooth. After signing a six-year, $162 million contract in December 2022, expectations were sky-high for the two-time All-Star to form a formidable one-two punch with ace Gerrit Cole. However, his 2023 season was a disaster, marred by injuries—a forearm strain and a back issue—that delayed his debut until July. When he finally took the mound, Rodón struggled, posting a 6.85 ERA over 14 starts, including a brutal final outing where he allowed eight runs without recording an out. The Bronx faithful, known for their high standards, were left questioning whether Rodón could handle the pressure of pitching in New York.

In 2024, Rodón showed signs of recovery, finishing with a 16-9 record, a 3.96 ERA, and 195 strikeouts over 175 innings. While solid, his performance still fell short of the ace-level expectations tied to his contract. But 2025 has been a different story altogether. Through his first 12 starts, Rodón has been nothing short of dominant, boasting a 7-3 record, a sparkling 2.60 ERA, and a 0.94 WHIP across 72.2 innings. His 90 strikeouts rank second in the American League, trailing only Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, and his 1.27 ERA over his last eight starts underscores his consistency and dominance.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Rodón’s 2025 statistics paint a picture of a pitcher in complete command. His 30.3% strikeout rate and 46.8% ground ball rate demonstrate his ability to miss bats while limiting hard contact. His 2.82 xERA (expected ERA) suggests his performance is no fluke, aligning closely with his actual results. Perhaps most impressively, Rodón has shown an ability to go deep into games, with multiple outings of six or more innings, including a standout seven-inning, 10-strikeout performance against the Los Angeles Angels, where he allowed just five hits and no walks.

One of Rodón’s most significant improvements has been his ability to limit home runs, a persistent issue in his first two seasons with the Yankees. In 2024, he allowed 31 homers, and early in 2025, he tied an unwanted franchise record by surrendering 51 home runs in his first 50 starts with the team. However, since mid-April, Rodón has tightened his approach, with outings like his April 18 start against Tampa Bay, where he pitched six scoreless innings without allowing a single barrel or home run—a rarity in his Yankees tenure. His last two starts before June 3 combined for 13 scoreless innings, six hits, and 17 strikeouts, showcasing his ability to keep hitters off balance.

Evolving Arsenal and Mindset

Rodón’s resurgence can be attributed to both physical and mental adjustments. For years, he relied heavily on a devastating fastball-slider combination, which accounted for over 90% of his pitches in his All-Star seasons with the Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants. However, after his fastball’s effectiveness waned in New York, Rodón, with the help of the Yankees’ pitching staff, expanded his repertoire. In 2024, he began incorporating a changeup, and in 2025, he’s leaned on offspeed pitches that rank in the 90th percentile for run value, according to Baseball Savant.
This “kitchen sink” arsenal has made Rodón less predictable, forcing hitters to adjust to a broader mix of pitches. His slider remains his bread-and-butter, with manager Aaron Boone calling it his “most dominant pitch,” but the addition of a reliable changeup and improved command of his curveball has elevated his game. His ability to paint the corners, as evidenced by a 10-strikeout masterpiece against the Angels on May 27, highlights his precision and confidence.

Mentally, Rodón has also transformed. The pressure of pitching in New York, coupled with his 2023 struggles, initially overwhelmed him. But by 2025, he’s embraced the “Bronx Zoo.” After a six-inning shutout performance against Tampa Bay on April 18, Rodón remarked, “This doesn’t feel overwhelming anymore. This feels like home.” His selection as the Yankees’ Opening Day starter on March 27—filling in for the injured Gerrit Cole—further boosted his confidence. Rodón has spoken about retraining his brain to focus on execution and conviction, a mindset that’s allowed him to thrive under the intense scrutiny of Yankee Stadium.

Impact on the Yankees

Rodón’s stellar 2025 has been a lifeline for a Yankees rotation dealing with significant challenges. With Gerrit Cole sidelined for the entire season following Tommy John surgery, Rodón has stepped up as the de facto ace, forming a dynamic duo with offseason acquisition Max Fried. His ability to eat innings—logging 175 innings in 2024 and on pace for a similar workload in 2025—has spared the bullpen, a critical factor for a team aiming to contend in October.

The Yankees, who entered June 2025 with a strong 30-15 record, have leaned heavily on Rodón’s consistency. His five straight wins from April to May, including a 1.32 ERA over seven starts, helped propel New York to the top of the AL East. Standout performances, like his May 22 gem against the Texas Rangers (six innings, two hits, eight strikeouts), have set the tone for a team determined to erase the sting of their 2024 World Series loss.

Rodón’s contributions extend beyond the stat sheet. His fiery competitiveness and ability to bounce back from adversity have earned him respect in the clubhouse. Manager Aaron Boone has praised Rodón’s work ethic, noting that his preparation and willingness to evolve have positioned him to “be that ace-level pitcher” the Yankees envisioned.

Looking Ahead

As the 2025 season progresses, Rodón’s performance will be crucial for the Yankees’ postseason aspirations. His ability to maintain his health—a concern given his injury history—and continue limiting walks and home runs will determine whether he can sustain this elite level. Posts on X reflect the growing excitement around Rodón, with fans and analysts alike marveling at his 0.72 ERA over his last four starts and his climb to the top 10 in MLB’s Pitcher Power Rankings.

For Rodón, 2025 is about more than just personal redemption. It’s about proving he can lead the Yankees to their ultimate goal: a World Series title. With his refined arsenal, unwavering focus, and newfound comfort in the Bronx, Carlos Rodón is not just meeting expectations—he’s exceeding them, one dominant start at a time.

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A Nightmare Start for New York

The tone was set early as the Dodgers’ bats erupted against Yankees starter Will Warren (3-2, 4.09 ERA). Los Angeles wasted no time, with Max Muncy delivering the highlight of the night. Muncy, a Dodgers stalwart, smashed two three-run homers and tied his career-high with seven RBIs, including his milestone 200th career home run. His performance was a catalyst for the Dodgers’ relentless attack, which saw them score in multiple innings and build an insurmountable lead.

The Yankees’ pitching struggled to contain the Dodgers’ star-studded lineup. Alongside Muncy, contributions from Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman kept the pressure on, with the Dodgers amassing 18 runs on a barrage of hits. Posts on X captured the despair of Yankees fans, with one prominent baseball insider calling the loss a “disaster” following the team’s disheartening performance.

Yankees’ Offense Stifled

While the Dodgers’ offense was in full swing, the Yankees’ bats were silenced by Dodgers starter Landon Knack (2-2, 5.22 ERA) and a robust bullpen. New York managed just two runs, a stark contrast to their potent offensive output in recent weeks. Aaron Judge, the Yankees’ reigning AL MVP, was held in check, and the team’s only scoring came from minimal contributions that paled in comparison to the Dodgers’ onslaught. The defeat was particularly humbling for a Yankees squad that had won 16 of their last 20 games entering the series.

Paul Goldschmidt, a key offseason acquisition for New York, was a bright spot earlier in the series, but even his impact was muted in this blowout. The former MVP, who has a strong track record against the Dodgers, couldn’t spark a comeback as the game slipped further out of reach.

Context of the Rivalry

This game was the second of a three-game set, following the Dodgers’ 8-5 victory on Friday, May 30, where Shohei Ohtani’s two home runs, including a pivotal shot in a four-run sixth inning, powered Los Angeles to a comeback win. The Dodgers’ dominance in these games underscores the intensity of the Dodgers-Yankees rivalry, one of baseball’s most storied. The teams have met 12 times in the World Series, with their most recent clash in 2024 ending in a Dodgers victory in five games.

The blowout loss also highlighted ongoing concerns for the Yankees, particularly in their pitching depth. With injuries plaguing key players like Jake Cousins, Luis Gil, and Giancarlo Stanton, New York’s roster is stretched thin. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, despite their own injury challenges—including absences of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and others—demonstrated resilience and depth.

Looking Ahead

The series concludes on Sunday, June 1, 2025, with the Yankees (35-22) facing the Dodgers (36-22) at 7:00 PM EDT. New York’s Ryan Yarbrough (2-0, 3.06 ERA) will take the mound against Los Angeles’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-3, 1.97 ERA), setting the stage for a critical rubber match. The Yankees will need a strong performance to salvage a game in the series and regain momentum, while the Dodgers aim to complete a sweep. For the Yankees, this loss serves as a wake-up call. Despite their strong start to the 2025 season, vulnerabilities in their pitching and inconsistency against elite teams like the Dodgers could haunt them in October.

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From MLB: “Players who turned pro at age 18 or younger in 2020 or at age 19 or older in 2021 were eligible for selection in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft if he wasn’t on a 40-man roster. Clubs who took a player in that phase must pay his former team $100,000 and keep him on their active big-league roster throughout the following season. The player can’t be sent to the Minors without first clearing waivers and then getting offered back to his original organization for half his draft price. 

It costs $24,000 to take a player in the Triple-A phase, with no restrictions about where those players can be placed in 2025.”

Fortunately, and almost surprisingly, the Yankees did not lose any prospects in the MLB phase. Last year, the Athletics chose former RHP prospect Mitch Spence as their first-round selection, going 1st overall. Spence later made his MLB debut with the A’s on the second day of the 2024 season, March 29th. Ironically, a former Yankees infield prospect, Cooper Bowman, was selected in the minor league portion of the 2022 Rule 5 Draft by the A’s, but he was selected in this year’s Draft by the Reds. Hopefully, Bowman will make his MLB debut in 2025, considering he is now essentially a part of the Reds’ bench. 

That said, the Yankees were able to make a selection in the first round of the Minor League Draft (also called the Triple-A phase), selecting outfielder Luis Durango, a native of Panamá City, Panamá, from the Cleveland Guardians. 

In 2024, the 21-year-old left-handed batter hit .250 (33-for-132) with 25R, 6 doubles, 1 triple, 14 RBI, 9 walks and 21 stolen bases in 41 games with Guardians’ Single-A affiliate, Lynchburg. In total, Durango hit .253 (145-for-574) with 118 R, 25 extra-base hits, including 18 doubles, 4 triples and 3 home runs. He also has recorded 47 RBI, 68 walks and 87 stolen bases in 181 games over four Minor League seasons with the Guardians (2021-2024). 

The only caution fans may have is how injury-prone Durango has been. Durango missed nearly all of May, plus nearly all the second half of the 2024 season to injury, playing a total of 44 games. 

Of the players the Yankees lost in the Triple-A phase: 

• Cincinnati selected LHP Joel Valdez (first round, last with A+ Hudson Valley) 

• St. Louis selected LHP Oddanier Mosqueda (first round, last with AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) 

• Atlanta selected RHP Blane Abeyta (first round, last with AA Somerset) 

• Pittsburgh selected OF Joel Méndez (fifth round, last with FCL) 

• Philadelphia selected RHP Gabriel Barbosa (fifth round, last with A Tampa, selected in 2023 Rule 5 from Colorado) 

To be blunt, most of these prospects did not have a significant impact on the Yankees system. In fact, Yankees fans should be overjoyed that the system did not lose some of the best talent, including but not limited to, RHP Zach Messinger, LHP Edgar Barclay, 1B T.J. Rumfield, and many others. You can view our preview of the Draft here, where we discuss those prospects that we were concerned about losing. 

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On November 19th, the Yankees protected two players, utility player Jesus Rodriguez and infielder Caleb Durbin.

Durbin had recently played in the Arizona Fall League on the Salt River Rafters with a few other Yankee prospects, but he stood out the most, being named the Breakout Player of the Year. In 24 games in the desert, Durbin batted a slash of .312/.424/.548, while stealing 29 bases in that span, good for the AFL stolen base record. He played in the AFL last year, but was unable to clinch the record due to injury, and said in an interview that that breaking the record was his goal last year. It should be noted that when it was last set in 1994 by the Phillies’ Rick Holifield, the AFL season was 50 games compared to the current 30 games played.

Durbin suffered a wrist injury after he fouled off a ball off of home plate, sidelining him for two months, but still played in 90 games in 2024, mostly for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Durbin batted .275/.388/.451 in the regular season with 60 RBI, 25 doubles, 2 triples, 10 homers and 53 walks. He also stole 31 of 35 bases successfully (88.6%), ranking fifth among other Yankee prospects in steals.

During a Zoom call with reporters last week, Yankees manager Aaron Boone said, “I think he’s a stud, frankly. Great bat-to-ball, elite ability on the bases as a base stealer, good defender in the middle of the diamond at second base. Really competitive, a hard-nosed, tough player. I’m excited about him and I think he’s going to play a big role for us this upcoming season.”

While it’s not mentioned much given the Yankees’ need for a second baseman with Gleyber Torres now as a free agent, Durbin spent some time in the outfield where they could take some advantage of his speed. Durbin spent 8 games in left field and one game in center field; he recorded a 1.000 field percentage. The Yankees likely won’t use him in this role, especially with Oswaldo Cabrera on the bench, but it’s still interesting to see that they’ve been trying him out in various roles, similar to this next prospect.

Jesus Rodriguez has been one of the sleeper prospects, in a way, given he’s been on the same team as other names like Spencer Jones, Rafael Flores, Chase Hampton and Brock Selvidge, to name a few. Rodriguez spent the majority of the 2024 season in High-A Hudson Valley (56 games) where he hit a slash of .332/.412/.507/.919 before getting promoted to Double-A Somerset in mid-June.

Rodriguez, a Venezuela native, hit .226/.278/.417/.695 in 23 games with Somerset. Despite a solid slash (combined .302 batting average and .856 OPS), he’s hit around 10 home runs per season the last two years. Rodriguez missed about 6 weeks of the second half of the season, and will likely start back in Somerset in 2025 unless Yankees brass see something in Spring Training that makes him stand out from the nearly half dozen other catchers.

What may make him stand out is that despite being a natural catcher, he played nearly the entire field in 2024, except for shortstop, center field, right field and pitcher. He did, however, spend most of the season behind the plate, a total of 272-⅓ innings (35 games), nabbing 21 of 103 runners (20.4%)

All this said, the Yankees have 33 other prospects that are Rule 5 eligible, and have the potential to be poached by other teams in a few weeks.

Via MLB, “Any player eligible for the Rule 5 Draft and not added to his organization’s roster by 6 p.m. ET [on 11/19] will be available to be selected by another organization. The Draft will take place at the Winter Meetings in Dallas on Wednesday, Dec. 11 [at 2 p.m. ET].

Players first signed at age 18 or younger must be added to 40-man rosters within five seasons or they become eligible to be drafted by other organizations through the Rule 5 process. Players signed at 19 years or older have to be protected within four seasons. Clubs pay $100,000 to select a player in the Major League phase of the Rule 5 Draft. If that player doesn’t stay on the 26-man roster for the full season, he must be offered back to his former team for $50,000.

For this year, that means an international prospect or high school Draft pick signed in 2020 at age 18 or younger had to be protected. A college player — or 19-year-old high school player — taken in the 2021 Draft was in the same position.”

In addition to the Major League phase, the Rule 5 draft also has a minor league phase. This phase is less publicized, but still offers opportunities for player movement.

• Eligibility: Players eligible for the minor league phase are those who are not on their organization’s Triple-A reserve list. This typically includes players in lower levels of the minor leagues.
• Selection Process: The selection order in the minor league phase is the reverse order of the previous year’s standings. Teams can select players from other organizations’ minor league rosters.
• Roster Requirements: Unlike the Major League phase, there is no requirement to keep selected players on the active roster. They can be assigned to any level of the minor leagues within the selecting organization.
• Compensation: A smaller fee is paid to the original team for players selected in the minor league phase compared to the Major League phase.

Impact on Minor League Players:

• Opportunity for Advancement: The minor league phase provides a chance for players in lower levels of the minors to be seen by other organizations and potentially move up to a higher level.
• Organizational Change: For some players, it can be a fresh start with a new organization that may offer different development paths or playing opportunities.
• Less Pressure: Unlike the Major League phase, there isn’t the immediate pressure to perform at the highest level, allowing for more development time.

Most recently, right-handed pitching prospect Gabriel Barbosa was selected away from the Colorado Rockies in the first round of the Minor League phase, with right-handed pitching prospect Kervin Castro selected away from the Houston Astros in the second round. Castro missed all of 2024, while Barbosa spent the entire season in Single-A Tampa (5.09 ERA, 120-⅓ IP, 128 K, 1.30 WHIP). By comparison, the Yankees lost 4 prospects: INF Eric Wagaman (LAA, DFA on 11/19), C Mickey Gasper (BOS), RHP Michael Gomez (TB), and INF Marcos Cabrera (PIT).

In the Major League phase, the Yankees also lost three pitchers, RHP Mitch Spence to the A’s and RHP Matt Sauer to the Royals. Sauer was returned to the Yankees in May, and declared free agency in early November. RHRP Carson Coleman was selected by Texas, but missed all of 2024 as a result of right shoulder surgery, and was returned to the Yankees on November 19.

For the 2024 Draft, the Yankees have 34 prospects eligible, but not all are likely to be selected. It would be cruel irony for the Yankees to lose two prospects they just signed in the past weeks, relievers Cristian Hernandez (PHI) and Jordany Ventura (NYM). However, prospects like infielders T.J. Rumfield and Tyler Hardman, outfielders Elijah Dunham and Grant Richardson and pitchers Zach Messinger and Edgar Barclay would be more likely to be selected.

Messinger was at the top of most lists that some were expecting to be protected (it should be noted that despite his utility, Rodriguez was not on any list). Messinger spent the entire 2024 season with Double-A Somerset, and threw a 3.06 ERA in 150 innings of work, with 25 of the 27 appearances as starts (he threw 2 relief appearances going behind rehabbing pitchers).

One thing of note with his 2024 campaign is that he didn’t throw as many strikeouts (8.16 K/9) compared to years past, although he did have an exceptional walk rate (3.12 BB/9) and HR rate (0.54 HR/9). The Virginia alum also had an excellent OBA of .204 and BABIP of .254, and had almost even splits of ground ball and fly ball rates (38.9% and 39.1%, respectively). He threw 12 consecutive scoreless innings

Messinger, a 6-foot-6, 225 lb. frame, throws a combination of four-seam fastball that sits around 93 MPH, a changeup that sits 82 MPH and a slider/sweeper, and uses the mid-80s sinker most as his “out” pitch.

Edgar Barclay has mostly been used in a reliever role most of his pro career, but that overwhelmingly changed in 2024. Barclay, a left-handed pitcher, faced nearly triple the number of batters and pitched in more than triple the innings compared to that of 2023. In fact, he lead the team in most games started. He has also done noticeably worse in his time in Triple-A; with Double-A Somerset in 2023, he threw a 1.32 ERA with an insane 13.50 K/9, a 2.91 BB/9 and 0.26 HR/9 in 34 innings of work. Compare that to later that year in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre where he threw a 5.89 ERA with a decent 9.95 K/9 but poor 6.70 BB/9 and 2.23 HR/9 in 44-1/3 innings pitched.

Barclay experienced much of the same in 2024, but increased his time on the mound from 21 total appearances in 2023 to 29 appearances and 143 innings pitched. His numbers were relatively the same, despite an increased workload: 5.98 ERA, 7.43 K/9, 4.41 BB/9 and 1.89 HR/9. In one of his last appearances of the year, Barclay threw a three-pitch mix: a four-seamer that sat upper-80s, a changeup that ranged from 62-82 MPH but averaged 79 MPH, and a curveball that sat in the 70s but averaged 77 MPH. Barclay has never thrown much heat, per se, but that hasn’t been an issue given his breaking balls have historically shown a lot of movement.

Watching a game from September 2024 where he started versus Syracuse, Barclay didn’t have many issues with controlling the ball, throwing a few in the dirt in the first inning, but the command was off in the first inning, where he allowed 2 doubles and a run to 5 batters faced because he kept throwing balls down the middle. It appears that Barclay’s pitching motion was sped up a bit, so that may account for some of the performance differences, although his pitch velo is the same when compared to a game where he threw in relief in 2022.

Of the next 6 innings in which he threw in that random game this past September, he only allowed a walk and a single. It would seem likely that if Barclay were acquired by another team that they may realize that he is best suited as a reliever, especially considering he went 7 starts and 16-2/3 innings to start 2023 without allowing an earned run (he allowed 8 hits and 2 earned runs in that span).

T.J. Rumfield, a first baseman acquired from the Phillies via trade in 2021, has been the Yankees’ top 1B prospect next to Ben Rice for well over a year, considering the Yankees do not have much depth in that role. In fact, Rumfield won the 2023 Rawlings Gold Glove Award for 1B in 2023, recording a .997 fielding percentage between High-A Hudson Valley and Double-A Somerset.

Rumfield spent all but 8 of 122 games played in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, where he hit a slash of .292/.365/.461/.826, with 26 doubles, 15 home runs and 71 RBI. 2024 proved to be Rumfield’s best year, offensively speaking, but his worst offensive year, committing 9 errors in 730 total chances (806-1/3 innings), for a fielding percentage of .988. Compare that to, say, Ben Rice, who committed only 2 errors in 289 total chances (349 innings) for a .993 fielding percentage in his debut season in the Majors. Where Rumfield would have an advantage over Rice is in size. Rumfield has a 6-foot-5 frame compared to the 6-foot-1 frame of Rice.

Elijah Dunham was signed as an undrafted draft pick in 2020, arguably one of the best quality draft seasons the Yankees have had in years, and Dunham has has relatively consistent production since he debuted in Low-A Tampa in 2021. In two of the past three years, Dunham, a lefty hitter, has batted just under .250, with an OPS around .447, and has hit about 16 home runs each of the past 3 years.

Despite what some may consider average production, Dunham, an Indiana alum, was named the Eastern League Player of the Week three times in 2024. In that week, he batted 7-for-18 (.389) with 10 RBI on 4 HR and 4 SB. He also earned those same honors for the consecutive weeks of July 1-July 7 and July 8-July 14, where he combined to hit 18-for-44 (.409). Dunham drove in 12 RBI on 6 doubles, 4 home runs, and 36 total bases.

Aside from his offensive performances, Dunham plays all three positions in the outfield, but performs better in the corners; he has a career fielding percentage of .984 in left and .991 in right. Dunham has spent considerably less time in center field, but has a .976 fielding percentage there. He also played 8 innings at 1B without committing any errors.

Grant Richardson, another lefty outfielder out of Indiana, had objectively his best career season in 2024, considering he hit nearly as many doubles (25) as he had hit the previous three years (28). Richardson hit a slash line of .257/.319/.401/.720 in 108 games (a career high), with 3 triples, 9 home runs, and 47 RBI, in addition to the previously mentioned 25 doubles.

Richardson also struck out the least in 2024, with a 28.1% K rate, compared to his previous low of 31.2% in 2023. His BABIP saw some improvement, moving up to .346 from .261 during his time in High-A in 2023 (77 games), and accordingly, his slugging percentage went up from .389 to .401.

Similar to Dunham, Richardson performs best in the corners, with career fielding percentages of .985 in left, .955 in center and .979 in right field. But, despite not being overly speedy (only 16 stolen bases), Richardson has no issue covering a lot of ground as a result of efficient routes.

It remains to be seen who will be taken in the Draft, and who the Yankees will ultimately select, if anyone. It seems unlikely the Yankees will select any prospect in the Major League portion given the targets they need to sign, specifically Juan Soto and a handful of relievers, but it’s possible they forego a reliever or two if there’s a Triple or Double-A pitcher their pro scouts really like.

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The Minor League season has come to a close, so it’s time for us to renew our Top 30 prospects. Some players that you like may have been left out because this is a purely subjective ranking. Everyone will have their opinions on players, and that’s fine. I have also left off some players like Ben Rice, Oswald Peraza, etc., because they have “graduated”. For example, Rice and Peraza have played in more than 30 games; Will Warren and Yoendrys Gómez have been left off because they have pitched more than 10 innings. They may still be considered “rookies”, of which the official definition is as follows: “130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues. 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List).” 

The acronym OFP you’ll see below is an “overall future projection” as to how the prospect is projected to turn out. It’s difficult to say how one player will pan out; there are superstar looking prospects that fizzle out before they get to the Majors, and there are very quiet prospects that aren’t really on anyone’s radar that surprise you when they make the Major Leagues. 

5: RHP Ben Hess – ETA: 2028; OFP: 55; Risk: Extreme 

I’ll be honest, I’m kind of taking a leap of faith with Hess with everything I’ve seen (video, written and stats) by ranking him 5th overall. I’ve said this a number of times: it’s difficult to rank college players in a pro top 30 because the jump to pro ball isn’t always easy. However, Hess seems like he should be able to handle it, especially considering he’s coming from a Division I SEC school (Alabama).  

Just to go over some of the stats Yankees fans can look forward to, Hess holds the ‘Bama career record for K/9 with 13.34 (205 K/138.1 IP). He also had a 5.80 ERA (44 ER/68.1 IP) with a team-high 106 K compared to 35 BB; that’s good for a 13.96 K/9 and a BB/9 of 4.61. Hess was ranked 8th in the SEC in strikeouts, including 35 looking Ks which was good for 5th in the SEC. 

While Hess was used as a starter throughout his 2024 Junior season, he spent his freshman season of 2022 as a starter that moved to the bullpen at the end of the year. The Yankees will likely choose to use him in the starter role but considering how high his K/9 numbers have been, don’t be surprised to see him get moved to the bullpen at some point. 

Given the pattern we have seen the past few years, I would expect Hess to make his professional debut with High-A Hudson Valley in 2025. Hampton did so in 2023, and Carr did the same in 2024. I would also expect that if Hess remains as starter, he’s used as a #1/#2 starter, but it’s a bit too early to project that. There’s some concern about past injuries (Hess missed most of 2023 with an injury), so hopefully he can stay healthy in upcoming years. 

4: INF George Lombard Jr. – ETA: 2027; OFP: 55; Risk: High 

I hate comparing prospects to other players, especially those either in the system or former Yankees farm hands, but Lombard reminds me so much of former SS prospect Trey Sweeney. Like Sweeney, Lombard was also a 1st round pick (Sweeney was selected 1st round in the 2022 MLB Draft), and Lombard also has somewhat of a questionable future with the team. With he and #3 prospect Roderick Arias fighting for playing time in Low-A Tampa, manager James Cooper chose to play Lombard at 2B for a significant part of the season. Lombard also played at 3B in 9 games, but did not do well there, recording a fielding percentage of .750 (5 errors in 20 total chances). Lombard was a better defender at 2B (.974) than at SS (.952), but Lombard ultimately recorded 23 errors in 2024. 

Lombard struggled throughout much of the season offensively, ending his time with Tampa with a slash of .232/.344/.348/.692 (81 games in 2024). His month and change with High-A Hudson Valley did not fare better, as it sometimes does with prospects, as he had a slash while there of .226/.321/.296/.617. Still, despite this and the late power we saw blossom in Tampa, Lombard has good mechanics and needs a very small adjustment to become an elite hitter. Once fans watch Lombard in person for a few games (you can only really see so much from the MiLB TV streams), they should be able to see the solid mechanics Lombard has. A lot of that can be attributed to growing up in a baseball household. His father used to play Major League baseball, and his brother, Jacob, is expected to be drafted in upcoming years. Jacob also attends Gulliver Prep and is part of the Class of 2026 (watch some video from Perfect Game, and you’ll see some similarities there). 

Lombard is ranked at the #4 position because of the high ceiling he has. He’s still extremely early in his career, all things considered, and has lots of room to grow, both physically and in a performance aspect. It’s questionable whether Lombard will hold a role with the Yankees long term, and that may be another commonality he has with Sweeney. I see Arias with a higher ceiling and overall performance potential compared to Lombard, which is why Arias is ranked higher, of course. If I were making the decisions, I would hold onto Arias (read on to learn why) and I would trade Lombard. Still, Lombard holds a lot of potential, and he will likely become a Major Leaguer with one of the 30 teams. 

3: INF Roderick Arias – ETA: 2027; OFP: 55; Risk: Extreme 

This may sound odd but hear me out on this: I see a lot of Jasson Domínguez in Arias. Both had less than stellar initial Low-A seasons, but as time went on, they figured things out. 

Arias really struggled at the plate at the beginning of the season, striking out in 42.9% of at-bats in April (36 SO in 84 AB), but by the time July came around, was down to a 25.6% K rate. Despite the high-ish K rate, Arias still had good plate discipline, working a 12.3% BB%. He still needs to work on his discipline with breaking balls, as that’s his biggest weakness at the plate, in my opinion. 

We did see a lot more of Arias’ power this year, as he had the best BABIP of his short career at .331. Using the comparison to Dominguez, there isn’t as much of a disparity when looking at splits between left and right-handed batting. Arias batted .222/.291/.253/.544 as a right-handed batter (versus LHP) and .235/.346/.430/.776 as a lefty batter (versus RHP). It should be noted that Arias batted as LHB in 374 AB and as RHB in 99 AB. 

I mentioned with Lombard about how the two interacted with each other this year in Tampa. Having two top middle infielders on the same roster is difficult to manage, and seeing Arias and Lombard swap out 2B and SS every few games was really interesting. As was alluded to previously, Lombard is a better SS than anywhere else on the field, so it works out that Arias is a better second baseman than shortstop. 

That said, Arias has had an underwhelming glove throughout his very short career, and that’s the one tool that’s of concern. He owns a .912 fielding percentage in 1108-2/3 innings at SS and had 22 errors this past season in 699-2/3 innings in Low-A Tampa. 

2: RHP Chase Hampton – ETA: 2025; OFP: 60; Risk: Extreme 

Hampton missed most of the 2024 season with various injuries, landing on the IL in mid-August with a groin injury, so we have to base projections off of what Hampton did last season between High-A Hudson Valley and Double-A Somerset. I think it’s fair to say that Hampton had an off year in 2024 after pitching in less than 20 innings, with 13 of them having been on rehab assignments with FCL and Low-A.  

In his last game with Low-A Tampa (where we can reliably get pitch data from), Hampton threw a mix of four-seamer, cutter, curveball, sinker and a slider, leaning predominantly on the fastball. The fastball and sinker sat low-90s, the cutter sat high-80s, the slider sat low-80s and the curveball sat mid-70s. That’s an excellent range of pitch speeds, and the difference in velocity between the fastball at 94 MPH and the curveball at 76 MPH is exceptional. That said, there isn’t a lot of difference in spin between the 5 pitches, so Hampton has to lean on his pitch location, which in this specific outing was very good. 

Considering that 2024 was a “throw away” season of sorts because of injury, it should seem fair to discount the lesser stats he put up compared to the 2023 season. Hampton threw a commendable 4.37 ERA in Double-A after only throwing 47 innings in High-A Hudson Valley where he made his professional debut. He put up an impressive 2.68 ERA, a 14.74 K/9 and a 3.09 BB/9, but his BABIP was less than stellar at .283 while in Hudson Valley. Hampton then threw a 10.26 K/9 and a 3.17 BB/9 in 59-2/3 innings in Double-A, with a combined ERA in 2023 of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.14. 

I don’t know if it’s fair to project where Hampton will sit with the Yankees, as his stuff shouts “bullpen” to me. While he was most frequently used in 4-5 inning outings, he has pitched as many as 7 innings in a few instances, throwing 90+ pitches in those outings. He may fare better eliminating the slider, as the cutter and curveball induced more swing and miss in the previously mentioned outing. In some video I saw of starts in 2024, that slider did not show nearly as much movement as the curveball or cutter.

If Hampton is used as a starter, he may fit best as a #3 or #4 starter, although his stats from 2023 in Double-A do line up with a starter like what Carlos Rodón did in 2024. However, I keep thinking of the Yankees’ dynasty era of another homegrown pitcher that had a sharp fastball/cutter combo. It’s entirely possible that’s the direction the Yankees go. Hampton has the confidence and grit needed to be a closer. The possibilities and high ceiling are what make Hampton the top pitcher in the Yankees farm system, but he needs to stay healthy. 

1: OF Jasson Dominguez – ETA: 2023; OFP: 60; Risk: High

I know I said in the lead-in that I’d be excluding prospects, but I think an exception should be made for Domínguez for the sole reason that he played about a week in the Majors before he went on the IL and needed Tommy John surgery. Domínguez will likely “graduate” by the time the next ranking comes around. Domínguez ended the 2024 MLB season at exactly 100 career plate appearances. 

“The Martian” still has a lot to prove, because left field, as he’s been playing a lot of this time around, isn’t his natural position. You can see he’s been struggling a bit out in left, and his plus speed has saved him a few times. That speed, by the way, looks rather clunky on his stocky frame, but he’s slimmed down quite a bit compared to what I saw in Tampa in his debut season. But, if you look at the stats throughout his Minor League career, his fielding percentages in both LF and CF overall are pretty close. This year seems to be much worse for Domínguez in LF (89-1/3 innings), as he posted a .905 fielding percentage versus .953 in CF (236 innings). 

There’s so much promise in the Dominican prospect and I’d be remiss not to rank him the top prospect. That said, the “sophomore slump” other former prospects have experienced this year is real, so I’m not holding too much against Domínguez this season. Domínguez has been working more walks over last season despite not hitting home runs at a truly insane pace. 

Domínguez has been a predominantly ground ball hitter throughout his career. If you were to rank those types of hits throughout his career, it would be ground balls at 47%, fly balls at 30% and line drives at 23%. It’s worked for him, and with a “hard hit” rate (balls hit over 95 MPH) in the Majors at 52%, getting balls through the gap is crucial if he’s not going to bloop them into the outfield or hit them over the wall for a home run. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s something the Yankees’ coaching staff is working on, or if they’re trying to get him to elevate the hit ball more for a line drive. He has a lot in common with fellow Dominican outfielder, Juan Soto in that regard; both have similar hit ball stats, except that Soto hits the ball harder, on average. 

The progression and maturation of talent by Domínguez that those of us fortunate enough to follow the minor league system has been rather rewarding. I said in a scouting report back in 2021 that he was too stocky to run the speed Yankees scouts had said he was capable of, and even going into the 2023 season, I wasn’t sold on Domínguez’s talents. I still stand by my grades for the most part, bumping the hit tool up to an above-average (55) and the OFP to 60 given he’s made the Majors. Will he be the “occasional all-star” as I noted in that report? That’s for him to prove. 

The post Late 2024 Yankees Top 30 Prospects: 5-1 appeared first on NYY UNDERGROUND.

The acronym OFP you’ll see below is an “overall future projection” as to how the prospect is projected to turn out. It’s difficult to say how one player will pan out; there are superstar looking prospects that fizzle out before they get to the Majors, and there are very quiet prospects that aren’t really on anyone’s radar that surprise you when they make the Major Leagues. 

Today, we continue with our 6th through 10th ranked prospects in the Yankees farm system. 

10: UTIL Jesus Rodriguez – ETA: 2026; OFP: 50; Risk: High 

This ranking may or may not be a surprise if you’ve been following High-A Hudson Valley and Double-A Somerset this year, but Rodriguez has been one of those players quietly doing his thing with others like Rafael Flores and Spencer Jones stealing some of the thunder. Rodriguez spent some time in the outfield briefly last season but spent significantly more time in left field this year with High-A Hudson Valley. Mostly, however, he spent his time either at 1B or behind the plate. 

Spending a majority of his season with the Renegades, Rodriguez put up some crazy stats, with a slash of .332/.412/.507/.919 in 56 games along with a wRC+ of 160, and led the organization in hits for a period of the season. Like many prospects, he has dealt with an adjustment period in Double-A, but in the last month of the season (August), batted .234 with an OPS of .633 compared to a BA of .182 and an OPS of .672 (his slugging was higher in July).  

The utility aspect is what really sells me on Rodriguez though. A player that can play C, 1B, and left field well, plus has pop (Rodriguez has had BABIP numbers over .300 throughout his career aside from the short time in Double-A) has me really excited about his future.  

However, Rodriguez is Rule 5 eligible. The Yankees may need to decide if he’s worth protecting or if they want to leave him exposed. They also need to decide if they want to include him as a part of a trade package so they don’t lose him for nothing like they would in the Rule 5 Draft. Given how little 1B depth they have, it would make sense for the Yankees to concentrate on molding him to that role. They have plenty of catchers and outfielders but having that versatility can be useful under injury situations. Look at how useful the versatility of Oswaldo Cabrera was for the Yankees a few years ago. 

9: LHP Henry Lalane  – ETA: 2027; OFP: 50; Risk: High 

Lalane is one of those special prospects you know is going to do serious damage, but fortunately, he’s with the Yankees farm system. Lalane is similar to that of Randy Johnson (although Johnson was 3 inches taller) in that both are/were lefty pitchers. Lalane doesn’t have the heat that Johnson had (that’s #20 Carlos Lagrange’s game), but has a good mix of four-seamer/sinker, change-up and slider. 

Lalane can get the fastball up to 92 but usually sits upper-80s/low-90s, while the change-up sits in the low-80s, and the slider sits in the mid-70s. 

Lalane had some trouble in Low-A Tampa, despite a very limited set of games, and the very limited pitch counts he was on skewed some of his numbers. There is sometimes an adjustment period with pitchers when they make the jump to full-season ball from the complex league because of the bigger stadiums, playing in front of a crowd and at night, etc. 

Lalane shows a lot of promise and threw some impressive games in the complex league last season, but was also inconsistent, like a handful of other pitchers out there. His biggest issue currently is overall command. His pitches are all over the place. If he can sort that out, the potential is there for Lalane to be a top part of a starting rotation in a few years. We don’t really know how long Lalane can go, since he hasn’t gone more than 4 innings since being stateside. 

If there is a major concern, it’s that he has been injury prone of late. He started and ended the 2024 season on the IL. That may lower his stock next time we evaluate the farm, but for now we look forward to the promise Lalane offers. If Lalane can sort out his command issues, he could easily be a #2 or possibly #1 starter in the future, but the command and injury concerns can hold him back. 

8: RHP Trent Sellers – ETA: 2026; OFP: 55; Risk: Medium 

The Yankees have been doing incredibly well with their un-drafted (UDFA) signings lately, and Sellers has shot straight to the top of the list. Oregon State is not necessarily well known for producing a significant number of high-quality prospects, especially pitching prospects, but current MLB’ers Matthew Boyd (2.72 ERA in 2024) and Drew Rasmussen (3.04 ERA in 2024) are fellow OSU Beavers. The most well-known OSU alum to Yankee fans is likely Jacoby Ellsbury; hopefully we see better luck with Sellers. For what it’s worth, the number 1 overall prospect in the 2024 MLB Draft, Travis Bazzana, was drafted out of OSU and was teammates with Sellers.

Sellers spent all but an inning and two-thirds in High-A (he threw in one game for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. In Hudson Valley, he threw a 2.09 ERA, and maintained a 10.76 K/9 and 4.06 BB/9. While the latter stats aren’t necessarily mind-blowing, he only allowed 3 home runs all season and was charged with 19 earned runs and 37 walks in 82 innings of work in High-A. Sellers’ BAA (batting average against) was an incredible .148 while his BABIP (batting average, balls in play) was .214. It may be wild to think about this, but from June 25 through the end of the season (Sept. 4, in this case), Sellers only allowed 4 runs, 2 earned. That’s 46-2/3 innings pitched for an ERA of 0.39.

Sellers has a five-pitch arsenal according to Statcast (he threw in one game for SWB): a four-seamer that sit low-90s and hits 93, a cutter that sits high-80s, a change-up that sits low-80s, a sinker that sits high-80s/low-90s, and a slider (only used once) that sits mid-80s. The 4SFB and cutter were the most often used pitches, but the curve was his best “out” pitch.

Although it was an incredibly limited showing in Triple-A for Sellers, we can still see that he was able to handle it in a way. His K rate maintained the same levels as in High-A, although he did walk more batters than what he did in Hudson Valley. It’s not unreasonable to expect to see Sellers in Triple-A next season, considering he should be expected to start in Double-A Somerset. It’s also not unreasonable to potentially see Sellers as a September call-up next season, but with the reluctance of how the Yankees call prospects up, that likelihood remains to be seen, of course. Most likely, he will likely get called up in 2026 unless he’s acquired by another organization in some fashion. Sellers started 9 of the 32 games he threw in, but topped out at 4 innings in an appearance, so he will likely be used as a middle-inning reliever out of the ‘pen or could be used as a starter in a “bullpen game”.

7: LHP Brock Selvidge – ETA: 2026; OFP: 55; Risk: Extreme 

Selvidge was the Yankees’ starter in the Spring Breakout prospect showcase game this past March, and for good reason. Selvidge went 4 innings in the 7-inning game, allowing only 1 hit and 1 walk while striking out 8 against the Blue Jays’ prospects. His first month of the season (4 starts) went just as well, as Selvidge recorded a 1.71 ERA, but things started falling apart in mid-May. Selvidge may have possibly been trying to throw through an injury as he landed on the 7-day, then the 60-day IL, on July 22. Despite this, Selvidge was still recording games with 6, 8 and 9 strikeouts per 5 to 6 inning appearance and he also recorded the most innings pitched in a season.

Stats aren’t necessarily everything though, as Selvidge has a deadly 4-pitch arsenal. In the Breakout game, Selvidge threw a mix of mid-80s slider, low/mid-90s four-seam fastball, low-80s sweeper and mid-80s change-up. He had the most contact with his slider, but the sweeper, which had nearly twice as much horizontal movement, was his deadliest pitch.

There’s not always a lot of speed difference between pitches like you would traditionally see with an elite pitcher. For example, Gerrit Cole threw a mid-90s 4SFB and mixed that with a low-80s knuckle curve in the game that clinched the AL East for the Yankees on Sept. 26. Selvidge doesn’t have that kind of velo on his fastball, which is fine (neither does Nestor Cortes), but Selvidge also doesn’t have the same kind of pitch movement or command like Cole and Cortes do.

Selvidge has a potential ceiling of a #1 or #2 starter, but needs to get his K% up a bit and his BB% down. Right now, those stats look roughly like that of Carlos Rodón of 2023. Next year, if Selvidge can get back to what I saw in 2023 when he was in Low-A, his stuff can be a good replacement for 2026 when Marcus Stroman is eligible for free agency.

6: OF Brando Mayea – ETA: 2027; OFP: 55; Risk: Extreme 

I’ve seen many top international prospects come through Tampa over the past decade plus that have not necessarily met expectations (Deivi Garcia, anyone?) and Mayea may be one of the first ones that’s really impressed me. Granted, it was only the Complex League in 2024 for Mayea, but there was a lot to like. 

Mayea missed the first few weeks of the FCL season with an injury, but ended the season with a bang, slashing .343/.395/.429/.921 in the month of July with a double, a triple and 4 RBI. Yankees scouts supposedly comp him to Gary Sheffield, but I don’t see it. Mayea doesn’t show elite bat speed, but he does hit consistently in the zone, overall. We didn’t see Mayea hit any home runs this season, so I can’t speak properly on his power, although he did go pretty deep a few times I saw him (I want to say that he went to the CF wall once). 

Not only is his offense impressive, but so is his defense. Mayea runs clean, efficient routes in center field, and he looks like a seasoned fielder out there. His arm, in the very few long throws I saw, was unimpressive, but his frame could take on more muscle, which could improve his long-distance throwing ability. 

I couldn’t find that I had had video of Mayea running to 1B, but if I recall, I had had him timed as double-plus (70) speed. That puts him in with the likes of Anthony Volpe or Jazz Chisholm Jr. 

All of this in a relatively still young package, so I wouldn’t be very surprised to see Mayea in the Bronx before too long… if there’s a spot for him to play. That’s an issue we have seen with other outfield prospects, especially with the high regard the Yankees hold Jasson Dominguez. If Aaron Judge and presumably Juan Soto are in the outfield for the next decade, will there be a battle for that corner outfield spot? Professionally, Mayea hasn’t played anything other than CF, so some experimentation may be coming in the next few years. If the Yankees move him over to left field like how they’ve done with Jasson and find better defensive success than what we’ve seen with The Martian of late, Mayea may be in a competition for the position with Dominguez and Spencer Jones. That may prove to be a lot of fun to watch. 

The post Late 2024 Yankees Top 30 Prospects: 10-6 appeared first on NYY UNDERGROUND.

The acronym OFP you’ll see below is an “overall future projection” as to how the prospect is projected to turn out. It’s difficult to say how one player will pan out; there are superstar looking prospects that fizzle out before they get to the Majors, and there are very quiet prospects that aren’t really on anyone’s radar that surprise you when they make the Major Leagues. 

Today, we continue with our 11th through 15th ranked prospects in the Yankees farm system. 

15: RHP Cade Smith – ETA: 2026; OFP: 40; Risk: Low 

Cade Smith was one of those players that I and a few others were baffled by why he was spending so much time in Low-A. In Smith’s last full month in Tampa (July), he put up insane numbers for the level: a 1.35 ERA, a 12.6 K/9, a 3.6 K/9, a .094 BAA and a 0.70 WHIP. I’ll get to why I don’t like using Major League player comparisons later, but he was as dominant as that of former FSL-er Orion Kerkering, who had a small part in the Phillies’ playoff run last season. If the Yankees were as ambitious as the Phillies were last season with Kerkering, Smith may have gotten the call up to the Majors… if he didn’t get hurt. 

In a game where Smith had 10K in 5-2/3 innings, he threw a mix of a slider, four-seamer, curveball and sweeper. The slider was his most used pitch, leaning on it half of the time, inducing 13 whiffs on 42 pitches (31%). The slider was mostly in the mid-80s, but had a wide range of velo, going from 81 MPH to 89 MPH. The fastball was low/mid-90s with a max of 95 MPH, while the curve and sweeper were low/mid-80s. 

Smith can show some incredible control, nailing the corners on a significant number of pitches, but other times gets really wild. It should be noted that the strike zone in the Florida State League is non-standard, so a ball or strike call here may not apply to the rest of pro baseball. 

Look for Smith to potentially be a #2/#3 starter in a few years, similar to how Rodón and Cortes are used currently, if not in a mix-and-match role like what Stroman is doing going into the end of the regular season. 

14: RHP Bryce Cunningham – ETA: 2028; OFP: 50; Risk: Extreme 

This goes for both Cunningham and Rivas (who you’ll see mentioned next), but the jump from college to pro ball can be tricky. Carr is the closest lateral pick (Carr went in the 3rd round because Yankees didn’t have a 2nd rd. pick in 2023) to Cunningham, and you may notice that he placed at #29. 

I don’t necessarily hold a ton of stock in collegiate stats. There are too many things that are different compared to professional baseball. College uses metal bats compared to wood bats. Pitchers can go longer in an outing; look at how Skenes went over 120 pitches with LSU.   

That said, a strikeout is a strikeout, just like a 4-ball walk is a base on balls. Cunningham had a K/9 of 10.21 in his junior year of 2024 and a BB/9 of 3.61, both solid stats.  

It remains to be seen how the Yankees use Cunningham, but he should place as a #1/#2 starter given how well he did with Vanderbilt. 

13: LHP Xavier Rivas – ETA: 2027; OFP: 45; Risk: High 

As mentioned previously, it can be difficult to place prospects making the jump from amateur to pro ball, but I think Rivas may have been the steal of the draft if he can stay healthy. If he hadn’t had “Tommy John” (UCL reconstruction) surgery, he may have pitched this season and gone top 3 rounds next year as a 5th-year senior. Instead, the Yankees signed him in the 16th round this past July. 

In a previous article with Inside the [Ole Miss] Rebels, he noted that he should be ramping up to a throwing program again by this past August, pending whatever his draft team decides. Basically, his doctor, Dr. Keith Meister cleared him to begin the rehab process. It’s possible he’s a part of “fall instructs”, but with that closed to the public, we won’t know unless video is leaked out. 

While Rivas had a 6.35 ERA in his Junior year (2023), he did record a 11.78 K/9 in 68 innings of work. The Ole Miss coaching staff thought highly enough of Rivas that they wanted to make him their ace. 

Where Rivas slots in with the Yankees is yet to be determined, but it should be fair to expect them to handle him with kid gloves in at least the first season. If they manage to have acquired a gem lefty pitcher for a bargain, he could fly through the system. 

(Rivas is the starter for Ole Miss in this compilation video from YouTube)

12: RHP Eric Reyzelman – ETA: 2025; OFP: 50; Risk: High 

Despite starting the season late due to injury, Reyzelman had an incredible season in 2024. He only allowed 5 earned runs in the regular season, and didn’t allow any earned runs dating to August 15th. That’s a span of 10-2/3 innings without allowing an ER, and only allowing 3 hits, while striking out 16 batters. All of that works out to a K/9 of 13.51 and a BB/9 of 6.75.  

That speaks to how Reyzelman has been throughout his career. He hasn’t pitched a lot given his role as a closer, but he has a career K/9 of 14.13; exceptional K/9 is considered anything over 10. And a lot of this is with the many injuries Reyzelman has experienced. He missed much of 2023, only throwing 7-2/3 rehab innings with FCL, and didn’t really start his 2024 season until the All-Star Break.  

The most recent Statcast data we have for Reyzelman is from August 2022, where he threw 24 pitches with Low-A Tampa. He used a 4-pitch mix of sinker, changeup, curveball and four-seamer. I typically group the sinker and fastball together with Savant data in the FSL, so those pitches sat low-90s with a max of 95 MPH. The changeup sat around 80 MPH, while the curveball sat in the mid/high-70s. 

Considering Reyzelman pitched all of 38-2/3 innings this year and he threw an ERA under 2 (1.93) in Double-A, it’s very possible we see Reyzelman in the Bronx next year if he’s not used as a trade piece at some point. 

11: OF Spencer Jones – ETA: 2025; OFP: 50; Risk: High 

Are we starting to see the cracks in Jones’ game? Possibly, as 2024 was by all accounts the worst year he’s had to date. That said, a .259 batting average and .789 OPS is nothing to sneeze at, but there are a few concerns worth noting.

First and foremost is that K%. Yes, it’s what the data nerds are drooling over, and striking out 200 times in 544 plate appearances is not great. The reason that number (the percentage, not the actual number of times) is concerning is that the pitching is only going to get more advanced from here on out. If Jones has any plan to be successful in the Majors, he needs to rein in the strikeout percentage and be a bit more patient at the plate. If there’s anything positive to look at with his plate discipline, it’s that he has maintained the same high walk rate of 9% or greater (9.9%, specifically in 2024). 

Something that Jones has is power and hit ability, and while his batting average was the lowest in 2024 compared to the rest of his short pro career, his BABIP was at its highest since he’s played in full-season ball at .401. That also translates to a higher wRC+ over last year at High-A Hudson Valley; 124 in 2024 vs 114 in 2023. His slash was not great towards the end of the season, hitting 44 for 145 for a .233/.189/.418/.607 with a 31% K% and 6.9% BB%.   

The comparison with Jones often is that of a “lefty Judge” and I was one of those who put his opinion in on that as soon as I saw Jones take his first pro at-bat in 2022. The similarities are there. But just as Anthony Volpe may not be “the next Jeter”, the same can be said for Jones. When Aaron Judge was in AA, nearly all of his stats were better than the year Jones had this past year. The only marks where Jones excels are speed and BABIP. Is it fair to compare prospects to other Major Leaguers? Not always. Let’s get rid of this one. 

While the most significant talking point of Jones’ 2024 season has been his elevated K% (37.8%), that shouldn’t diminish the potential Jones can have with the Yankees, or possibly another team. The strikeout rate did set him a bit lower in the ranking, given the pitching in AAA will be better than that of what he faced in AA, that will likely be the true test in whether he’ll be capable of dealing with Major League-caliber pitching. 

Jones absolutely has the talent to be an everyday starting outfielder, but as of now does not have the right path to get to the Bronx. It’s difficult to project him to go one way or another given his previous, albeit limited, history of an elevated K% and while the power is absolutely there, hitting one in less than 3% of at-bats is not necessarily going to make you an all-star. I hope Jones can prove me wrong next season, because Dominguez already has. 

The post Late 2024 Yankees Top 30 Prospects: 15-11 appeared first on NYY UNDERGROUND.

The acronym OFP you’ll see below is an “overall future projection” as to how the prospect is projected to turn out. It’s difficult to say how one player will pan out; there are superstar looking prospects that fizzle out before they get to the Majors, and there are very quiet prospects that aren’t really on anyone’s radar that surprise you when they make the Major Leagues. 

Today, we continue with our 16th through 20th ranked prospects in the Yankees farm system. 

20: RHP Carlos Lagrange – ETA: 2027; OFP: 45; Risk: Extreme 

The Yankees have drafted many tall American-born-and-raised pitchers in recent years, and Lagrange adds a Dominican flair to that list. The 6-foot-7 righty uses his size to reach triple digits on his fastball. 

Lagrange mostly uses that double-plus fastball, a four-seamer, which sits in the upper-90s, and a cutter that sits in the upper-80s, and an infrequently used mid-80s slider and upper-80s change-up. The incredible velo on the fastball is fun to see, but it doesn’t matter if he can’t throw it where he wants it to go. Command will be a significant thing for Lagrange to work on in the coming months and years, because aside from any potential injuries that may arise from throwing at that kind of speed, the below-average command may hinder his progress.  

That said, despite Lagrange’s rather elevated ERA in his limited time in Low-A this season (6.91 in 14-1/3 IP), he maintained an exceptional K/9 of 11.93. His trouble is that with the below-average command comes a lot of walks, at a rate of 8.16 BB/9. Lagrange needs to lower that to under 3 to be considered “average”. If he can sort out the command and get the walks down to under 3, or even better under 2.5, he has the potential to be a top 10 prospect. 

19: C/1B Engelth Ureña – ETA: 2027; OFP: 45; Risk: Extreme 

To be fair, Ureña would be much higher on a top 30 list with other organizations, but the Yankees are so deep with talent that he sits in the top 20. My caution with Ureña is that he missed all of 2023 to injury, along with much of 2022. He has played all of 51 games of pro baseball, so we don’t know how “durable” he can be, especially in the role of catcher.  That shouldn’t diminish his talents, but should be something to be aware of, and drops him a little lower in this list. 

Ureña batted a slash of .301/.420/.564/.984 in 2024 with the rookie-level FCL team and drove in 31 RBI in 133 at bats. Ureña had one of the highest wRC+ on the team at 161 and spent more time at 1B (127-1/3 innings) than behind the plate (84 innings). 2024 was Ureña’s first year playing 1B, and he was perfect, with 108 total chances and no errors recorded. The same can’t be said while as catcher, where he allowed 16 stolen bases in 18 chances, throwing out 2 runners.

I wouldn’t totally rule out Ureña moving up in the list next season, but he needs to be able to prove he won’t be injury prone. His stats are solid, but there’s lots of depth in the catcher role in the Yankees’ system (there are three catchers on this list).  

18: RHP Zach Messinger – ETA: 2025; OFP: 45; Risk: Medium

Messinger has proven to be yet another gem of a mid/late draft selection, as the 13th round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft has had an ERA of 3.06 through the 2024 regular season. While Messinger didn’t have the solid K/9 and BB/9 stats of last year in High-A (10.48 and 4.92, respectively), it should make sense to exchange a bit of compromise there when he gave up half of the home runs year-over-year compared with last year (1.21 HR/9 vs. 0.54). Also consider that Double-A is considered a significant jump over both Single-A levels, given the advanced competition. 

Messinger shows a mix of a mid-90s four-seam fastball, a low-80s change-up, an upper/mid-80s slider and a curveball (I didn’t see it thrown, so I don’t have velo). The fastball and change are his go-to pitches; the fastball has some late rise which very much confuses batters, while the change has some curveball-type vertical movement. Control is above-average if not excellent, then tailing off to average as the game goes on, allowing 3.36 BB/9, and 5.60 K./9. In his last 10 starts (totaling 59 IP), he only allowed 12 ER for an ERA of 1.83.

Depending on how aggressive the Yankees are in the upcoming 2024/25 off-season into Spring Training with their prospects, there’s a good possibility that Messinger is one of the September or even mid-season call-ups. Messinger would fit as a back-end starter or potentially in a long reliever role, and has a chance to be a #1 or #2 starter if he can really fine-tune that command. In the specific game I saw versus Hartford (8/15), he threw a decent game, but had a rough 2nd inning where he allowed 3 runs, including 1 HR. His month of May should be looked at in the off-season and Spring Training as one to mirror going forward as he had the best K/9 (11.71), a decent BB/9 (2.60) and solid ERA (1.95) in that span. Those are some of the best stats within a month he held all season.

17: C Edgleen Perez – ETA: 2028; OFP: 45; Risk: Extreme 

Perez was one of the most impressive players on the 2024 FCL team in my opinion given the total package offered and is yet another incredible IFA catcher signing by the Yankees, including that of Agustin Ramirez, who was part of the trade with Miami for Chisholm. 

Perez has a loud bat (.283 BA, .346 BABIP, 138 wRC+) with decent at-the-plate numbers (20.8% BB%, 16.2% K%), but also has good defensive skills. While he may not have the most elite pop time, there are still a few years until he’s potentially MLB ready. Actually, Perez has only nabbed 1/4 (24.85%) of base stealers in the two years he has played pro ball, so the Yankees have a lot of work to do.

The concern, if any, with Perez is that he was signed so young; he just turned 18 in May. I look at that in a positive light: the Yankees can make a more significant impression in how to become an excellent catcher. There’s no reason Perez doesn’t start in Low-A Tampa next year, and depending on how that goes, he may be on your Top 10 radar sooner than later. 

16: OF Francisco Vilorio – ETA: 2030; OFP: 45; Risk: Extreme 

There’s not a lot of video to work with here given Vilorio isn’t stateside yet, so bear with me. Vilorio was the top IFA the Yankees signed in 2024, so given it’s his first year in pro ball, he’s just learning how to ride a bike with training wheels. I don’t look too much into DSL stats, so the K% of nearly 33% and batting average under .200 doesn’t concern me. Vilorio only played in 42 games with the DSL Bombers (one of the two DSL teams the Yankees have).  

Vilorio had a success rate of 67% with stolen base attempts (8-for-12), so once he gets in more games, especially in FCL where he’ll face a mix of international and American players, we should get a better idea of how his jumps are, what his speed is like, etc. I did see part of one game where he stole second, and he got a very good jump, going before the pitcher even threw the ball. Vilorio showed good speed, but I could not find a broadcasted game to actually time speed properly, so I’m unable to score him appropriately.

As far as his defense goes, we can really only scout the statline, as the saying goes (you’re supposed to never scout the statline, but there’s not much choice here). Vilorio committed 5 errors in 70 total chances with 64 putouts and 1 assist for a fielding percentage of .929. 

The post Late 2024 Yankees Top 30 Prospects: 20-16 appeared first on NYY UNDERGROUND.

The acronym OFP you’ll see below is an “overall future projection” as to how the prospect is projected to turn out. It’s difficult to say how one player will pan out; there are superstar looking prospects that fizzle out before they get to the Majors, and there are very quiet prospects that aren’t really on anyone’s radar that surprise you when they make the Major Leagues. 

Today, we continue with our 21st through 25th ranked prospects in the Yankees farm system. 

25: RHP Harrison Cohen – ETA: 2026; OFP: 40; Risk: Low 

Cohen was an undrafted free agent selected out of George Washington in 2022, and ever since he debuted in 2023 has been dominant. Even in a brief 3-1/3 inning stint in AA Somerset, Cohen didn’t allow any runs and threw an above-average 8.1 K/9 but walked too many batters at a 5.40 BB/9. This year, Cohen is throwing his usual excellent 10+ K/9 and had an insane 0.47 BB/9 for an ERA of 0.93 in 2024. Some injuries sidelined him for much of the 2024 season, so there may be some future concern there, but the injury didn’t seem to affect his throwing abilities, obviously. 

Cohen has something in common with Mariano Rivera in that he’s a bullpen piece and only throws a fastball (a four-seamer, specifically) and a cutter. He also has a change-up and slider that Yankees PD is playing with, but they’re thrown so infrequently that it’s almost worth saying he doesn’t have them in his arsenal. The fastball is mid-90s with a max of 96 and the cutter sits in the mid/upper-80s with a max of 89 MPH. 

24: RHP Cam Schlittler – ETA: 2026; OFP: 40; Risk: Low 

Schlittler has had a decent year between High-A and Double-A, maintaining a K/9 of 11 or greater, in part because of a plus slider and above-average fastball that both induce a lot of whiffs. Schlittler is one of the many excellent middle-of-the-draft picks (7th round, 2022; $205,000 bonus) the Yankees have selected over the last few years.

If there was anything to be concerned about with Schlittler, it’s his BABIP. When a batter makes contact, it’s at a nearly 40% rate (.390) in Double-A Somerset. He was down to .264 in High-A, a career low rate. His ERA has been floating around the 3.80-4.20 mark throughout the season. Most of his contact was against that fastball.

The fastball (mid-90s, max 96) has a lot of sweep to it and runs away from his throwing arm across the plate but doesn’t have enough movement to justify calling it a slider or sweeper. The slider (upper-80s) has more of a tail at the end like a cutter would. Schlittler has a below-average curveball (low-80s) that he uses infrequently and has poor command. Command overall is average, and an improvement in command and control would move him significantly up the ranking.  

23: RHP Clayton Beeter – ETA: 2026; OFP: 40; Risk: Low 

Part of the return in the trade with the Dodgers for Joey Gallo (one-for-one), Beeter has been exceptional in Triple-A this season, throwing an ERA of 2.53 in 32 IP, despite missing significant time to injury. The injuries and missed time he’s experienced in the past 18 months drops him down the list significantly. If he can stay healthy, Beeter can play a large role with the organization, if he’s not used as a trade chip for another player. 

It’s a little curious why the Yankees have him sitting in the Minors with stats like he’s putting up. A 12.44 K/9 in Triple-A is exceptional, and that’s likely why the Yankees have been slowly moving him to the bullpen and using him in the back end of games. In his first game with AAA Scranton this season, Beeter threw an even split of a four-seam fastball and slider mix. The fastball sat mid-90s with a max of 98 MPH and the slider sat mid/upper-80s with a max of 90 MPH. 

Beeter’s biggest challenge right now, and the reason aside from injury why he’s ranked so low, is that his command is average if not below-average for where he is in the system right now. In the aforementioned outing, he threw 24 pitches, with 15 of them hitting the strike zone. That said, hitters swung at half of his pitches, with only two of those pitches landing outside of the strike zone. 

If Beeter worked on his command and stayed healthy, he could move up the ranking next year, if he didn’t already make the Opening Day roster for the Yankees. The shoulder injury is a concern, though, since he was just shut down for a few months. Is it possible Beeter ends up fine and doesn’t need surgery? Yes, of course. Still, keep the injury in the back of your mind when watching his outings this year. It’s also possible that the reason he’s being used in the bullpen is because that allows them to get Beeter some innings without putting unnecessary strain on his shoulder and arm. 

22: OF Brendan Jones – ETA: 2026; OFP: 40; Risk: Low 

Jones (no, not that one) quickly got off to a hot start once he started playing in Low-A Tampa at the end of July, proving to be one of the better picks of the 2024 Draft. The Yankees didn’t select a lot of bats, but he has proven to have been a solid choice in the limited time he’s played for the organization. Jones has shown in only 24 regular season games that he has the bat, power and arm to play pro baseball. 

Jones is a tricky one to project, especially given the limited sample size. Some prospects can have really hot first few weeks as a pro player, especially in the lower levels, and fizzle out once they get to Double-A and Triple-A. It should be expected to see him spend a majority of the 2025 season in High-A, or at least the first half, unless he blows the socks off of Yankees PD management in Spring Training. It is entirely possible to see Jones start in Double-A, depending on what depth looks like going into 2025. Like many outfield prospects, the depth and logjam in the outfield (Spencer Jones, Jasson Dominguez, Everson Pereira, etc.) will likely hinder promotion speed throughout the system.  It’s also possible that Jones starts the 2025 season in Low-A Tampa.

All of Jones’ scouting scores are above-average (55) or better, and he’s got 80-grade speed (3.80 seconds or better as a RHB). Based on the trend he was on in the short time he played with the Yankees org. In 2024, he was on pace to hit 20 home runs, and stole 18 bases in 104 PA and has yet to have been caught stealing. 

To be honest, he probably deserves to be higher on the list, but I’m holding out to see what next year looks like. If he keeps this pace up, and hits closer to .300, Jones could land in the Top 10. 

21: LHP Geoffrey Gilbert – ETA: 2026; OFP: 40; Risk: Low 

Despite throwing only 7 innings and landing on the injured list at the end of April, Gilbert shows a lot of promise in the bullpen. Gilbert allowed only 1 hit and 1 walk in his short stint with High-A this season, with an incredible .043 OBP and 0.43 WHIP. In his last 5 appearances of 2023 with Low-A Tampa (7 IP, 1 ER), he threw a 1.29 ERA, allowing 1 hit and 4 walks, good for a 0.71 WHIP. 

Gilbert leans on a four-pitch arsenal: four-seamer, changeup, slider and sinker. Gilbert doesn’t have a ton of velo, which is fine. It’s the command that is a concern, or at least it was last season according to ABS data (all pitch data here is sourced from last season). Using the eye test, Gilbert threw several excellent pitches. In one game, the slider (upper-70s/low-80s) looked like an above-average to plus pitch, and almost resembled the tumble of a curveball. Batters stood in the box confused because they didn’t know what was coming in. The fastball is an average pitch, with velo sitting low to mid-90s, with a max of 94 MPH. Gilbert also has a changeup he used that sat low-80s, and used a slider that sat at 90 MPH. A pitcher with less-than-average velo, say like Nestor Cortes, is not unusual, if they have pitches with a lot of movement like Cortes has with the sweeper slider and his low to mid-90s fastball (almost identical pitch to that of Gilbert). Gilbert is still extremely early in his pro career, with only 56 innings under his belt, so he can still experience lots of improvement.

The post Late 2024 Yankees Top 30 Prospects: 25-21 appeared first on NYY UNDERGROUND.

The acronym OFP you’ll see below is an “overall future projection” as to how the prospect is projected to turn out. It’s difficult to say how one player will pan out; there are superstar looking prospects that fizzle out before they get to the Majors, and there are very quiet prospects that aren’t really on anyone’s radar that surprise you when they make the Major Leagues.

30: OF Jackson Castillo – ETA: 2027; OFP: 40; Risk: High 

Castillo was very impressive in many facets of the game, from his bat to his fielding. Castillo, a lefty bat, maintained a batting average over .300 in the few games spent with High-A Hudson Valley (he lost a week in mid-August to a 7-day IL stint). Castillo held a wRC+ of 148 in High-A and 131 in Low-A, plus had a K% under 20%. In the last 7 games of the regular season, Castillo batted .381, recording a hit in 6-of-7 games, including a game versus Jersey Shore where he went 3-for-5 and hit 2 doubles. Impressive stuff given his small-ish 5-foot-9 frame. 

Castillo spent most of the season in CF (607.1 innings) and has only committed 2 errors. He runs efficient routes, but his arm is an underwhelming average. 

29: LHP Kyle Carr – ETA: 2027; OFP: 40; Risk: High

Carr debuted this past April with High-A Hudson Valley, which surprised some given the rocky start he had there. Carr settled in once the calendar flipped to June, throwing his first career shutout in 5 innings of work. While Carr is capable of solid outings, throwing a 0.95 ERA in the first 4 outings in August (2 ER in 19 IP), but then had a rough 7 hit, 6 run, 4 earned runs where he threw in 4 innings of work in the last start in August. 

Carr’s K/9 and BB/9 are about average and given he has been capable of 8 strikeouts in a game, the challenge for next season will be to see more of that. Carr has a mix of fastball that sits upper-90s and a slurvy slider looking pitch as a breaking ball that sits low-90s. Both pitches have good command, but what needs some work is getting batters to chase, since he doesn’t have a true breaking ball. 

Of balls in play, Carr has a nearly 50% ground ball rate, with nearly equal splits of line drives (22.9%) and fly balls (27.4%). Also, Carr has a BABIP of .313, which is a little concerning. It should also be noted, however, that Carr was part of a combined no-hitter this past July, as seen in the video below. The talent is absolutely there, but like other arms in the lower levels, he must become more consistent. You may get a shutout, or you may get a blowout, but this is what the Yankees expected for a 3rd round selection.  

28: 2B/SS Enmanuel Tejeda – ETA: 2028; OFP: 40; Risk: High 

Tejeda had a handful of injury issues this past year, ending his season in June after tumbling down the 1st base line, suffering a lower leg injury and landing on the full-season IL in late July. That said, despite only playing in 48 games, Tejeda batted well over .300 (.326 between FCL and Low-A), and likely would have been promoted to High-A at some point in the season had been not been injured so much.

Tejeda has a very polished swing for an international player in only his 3rd year of pro ball and is just as smooth on the field. Tejeda, if his leg is healed for the start of the 2025 season, should start at High-A. 

27: Trystan Vrieling – ETA: 2026; OBP: 40; Risk: High 

Vrieling has not had a great season, despite a strong first few games with Somerset in April. His ERA stayed close to 5 for much of the season, and has an average K/9 of 8, and average BB/9 of 2.80. Vrieling’s mid-90s fastball has some late sink to it, and he also has a mid-80s cutter he uses as an “out” pitch where the bottom falls out just before it hits the plate, along with a high-70s/low-80s curveball. Vrieling’s command is not great but does flash brilliance at times when he happens to catch the corner of the zone. 

Vrieling may be better used down the road as a middle-inning reliever, where he only pitches an inning or two. While he has limited splits in the latter part of a game, Vrieling has only allowed 1 hit and no runs in 7 IP between the 7th and 9th innings of games this season. 

26: C/1B Rafael Flores – ETA: 2026; OBP: 40; Risk: Low 

Flores, a UDFA selection out of Rio Hondo Junior College in California, has been impressive even since his first pro game back in 2022, where he had a very small sample size of 7 games but went 6-for-14 in the regular season with 2 homers and 2 RBI (4 games) 6-for-11 in the playoffs with 3 RBI (3 games). Since then, he’s averaged a .272 BA and an OPS of .809 and has a wRC+ of 150.

Flores is a lot like Ben Rice in that while he’s a capable catcher, he seems to fit best at 1st base. Also like Rice, Flores packs above-average power in that plus bat. Given he spent most of the season in AA Somerset and did well there, he may begin 2025 with AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre if the Yankees feel aggressive enough. 

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